Why Wall Street Believes the U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Will Last

Key Takeaways

• Washington and Tehran reached a conditional two-week ceasefire moments before Trump’s escalation deadline expired
• Tehran consented to temporarily allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transport route
• Iran unveiled a 10-point peace proposal demanding complete sanctions removal and full U.S. military withdrawal from the Middle East
• President Trump described the framework as having potential but emphasized nuclear stockpile issues must be resolved
• A prominent Wall Street analyst identified eight factors suggesting the ceasefire will survive, pointing to political and economic incentives on both sides

---

Washington and Tehran reached a conditional ceasefire agreement late Tuesday evening, arriving just under two hours before President Trump’s self-imposed ultimatum. The arrangement suspended planned U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure for a 14-day period, contingent upon Iran immediately allowing passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The White House confirmed that Israel has also committed to honoring the ceasefire.

Global financial markets surged following the announcement. Oil prices experienced a significant decline.

Trump had previously issued warnings about destroying “a whole civilization” if Tehran refused to cooperate. The ceasefire agreement represented a dramatic shift in diplomatic posture.

Tehran has now introduced a 10-point framework intended to serve as the foundation for extended negotiations. While the complete document hasn’t been formally published, Al Jazeera’s reporting reveals its primary requirements.

The proposal demands a U.S. pledge of non-aggression, recognition of Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities, complete sanctions relief, termination of all UN Security Council and IAEA resolutions targeting Tehran, and full withdrawal of American combat troops from regional military installations.

Additionally, it seeks comprehensive war reparations, to be funded through fees imposed on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the unfreezing of all Iranian financial assets held internationally.

Trump characterized the framework as containing “very good points” and indicated that most elements had already been subject to negotiation. However, he challenged the publicly released version, implying it misrepresented the actual discussions.

“They’re not the maximalist demands that Iran is claiming,” Trump stated to Sky News.

Regarding nuclear matters, Trump remained unyielding. “That will be perfectly taken care of, or I wouldn’t have settled,” he informed AFP.

Wall Street Analysis

Adam Crisafulli, an analyst at Vital Knowledge, expressed confidence that the ceasefire will endure and provided eight supporting rationales.

He contended that Trump’s primary escalation pathways — striking civilian targets, forcibly reopening Hormuz militarily, or confiscating Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles — represent unfavorable options that reduce the likelihood of renewed hostilities.

Crisafulli further noted that Washington can credibly assert it accomplished its primary military objectives, having successfully degraded Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear facilities.

He cautioned that a stagflationary economic disruption is already rippling through the global economy following five weeks of confrontation, and its full impact may not materialize in economic data until late summer or autumn.

From a political perspective, Republican polling figures have experienced sharp declines, and internal White House resistance to the conflict was more widespread than initially understood. Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and additional senior administration members reportedly harbored doubts about continuing military operations.

Congressional willingness to authorize additional war funding is also diminishing. The White House currently seeks between $80 billion and $100 billion in supplemental appropriations, substantially reduced from the Pentagon’s original request exceeding $200 billion.

The Hormuz Strait Controversy

Authority over the Strait of Hormuz remains the most contentious element of any prospective agreement.

Iran’s framework proposes that safe passage resume under Iranian military supervision. Intelligence reports indicate Iran and Oman might impose transit charges reaching $2 million per ship, with proceeds allocated toward reconstruction efforts.

Tehran has also indicated it retains the option to close the strait again should negotiations collapse.

Analysts believe Iran’s requirements are improbable to be accepted in their current form. They’re interpreted as an initial bargaining position rather than a conclusive proposal.

Discussions between the two nations regarding Iran’s nuclear activities have continued for nearly twelve months with minimal advancement. The pre-conflict arrangement governing the Strait of Hormuz — as an internationally shared maritime passage — remains a fundamental obstacle, as Tehran now seeks exclusive authority over the waterway.

The post Why Wall Street Believes the U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Will Last appeared first on Blockonomi.

Source: https://blockonomi.com/why-wall-street-believes-the-u-s-iran-ceasefire-will-last/