Will XRP’s Next Big Move Drive it Below $1?

XRP is trading around $1.33 as the altcoin continues to drift lower with no meaningful catalyst in sight. While broader markets are in a wait-and-see mode around the US-Iran ceasefire developments, XRP has found no relief from the pressure. It is sliding further toward the critical support zone that has served as the last line of defense since February.

Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

The structure on the USDT pair remains firmly bearish. XRP is trading inside a descending channel with both the 100-day MA (~$1.60) and 200-day MA (~$1.90) declining well overhead. The asset has been grinding lower in a slow bleed that has now brought it uncomfortably close to the $1.20 support zone.

That level held during the February capitulation wick but has not been tested on a sustained closing basis.  Therefore, a retest appears increasingly likely at the current trajectory.

The RSI is also hovering in the low-to-mid 40s, reflecting weak but not yet oversold conditions. This suggests there is still room to the downside before any mean-reversion bounce becomes probable. Buyers need to see a reclaim of at least $1.60 — the descending channel’s upper boundary and the convergence zone of the 100-day MA — before any recovery thesis holds water.

Below $1.20, the next meaningful support sits at $1.00, with little structural backing between those two levels.

The BTC Pair

The XRP/BTC pair has deteriorated much more sharply than its USDT pair counterpart. The pair is now trading at approximately 1,864 sats, which is well below the 2,000 sats level that had offered some support through February and March. The breakdown is significant and confirms that XRP is not just falling in dollar terms, but actively losing ground against Bitcoin at an accelerating pace.

Both the 100-day MA (~2,100 sats) and 200-day MA (~2,200 sats) remain well overhead and declining, and the descending channel structure has been intact since the August 2025 peak near 3,000 sats. The RSI has dropped to the low-to-mid 20s (deeply oversold territory), which could spark a short-term technical bounce, but oversold readings alone are not sufficient to reverse a trend this entrenched.

The next support levels sit at the previous wick low of 1,800 sats, and the key 1,600 sats demand zone. On the other hand, a reclaim of the 2,000 sats resistance level is the minimum needed before the bearish outlook on this pair begins to soften.