$1.40 Breakout or $0.80 Retest

The analyst has identified the $1.61 to $1.65 region as the point where a more convincing bullish recovery would begin.

XRP is sitting on what analyst EGRAG CRYPTO is calling a “macro decision zone,” with the next monthly candle close likely determining whether the token carves out a double bottom or slides toward $0.80.

Although the token has bounced back after touching a 19-month low of $1.05 last week, it still hasn’t cleared the levels that would give bulls any real confidence.

The Framework

According to EGRAG, a monthly close above $1.40 would confirm that the $1.05 low was the bottom. However, in their opinion, reclaiming $1.61 to $1.65 would be where genuine bullish recovery begins, with a break above $1.70 adding another layer of confirmation. Still, none of those levels have been touched as of now.

The analyst also made a case for the downside, saying that if XRP lost momentum, it could go back down to $0.80. Interestingly, they didn’t flag any intermediate support between the current price and that level if the structure breaks down.

“Hold ground then → double bottom possible,” they wrote. “Lose momentum then → $0.80 retest likely.”

Earlier, EGRAG pointed out that XRP had reached $1.1860 and was “building momentum for the second push,” placing a short-term target of $1.19 to $1.25. The analyst did warn that losing $1.14 would open the door to a retest of $1.10.

Fellow market watcher CasiTrades added a complementary read of their own, noting that the Ripple token had “perfectly” hit a major .786 macro Fibonacci support at $1.09 on Coinbase. The crypto trader also identified $1.19 and $1.27 as resistance zones that, if they failed, could lead to a deeper low toward the $0.90 area.

However, if XRP can push through both, it would suggest that the market is building a new trend rather than setting up for another wave lower.

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XRP Recovery Amid SBI’s Reward Program Launch

Some traders are looking beyond daily price action, with one of them, ChartNerd, noting that XRP had closed below its 200-week simple moving average, a development that in the past came just before cycle lows.

At the time of writing, the world’s sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had gained just over 1% in 24 hours. The uptick followed news that Japan’s SBI Bank had launched a program that lets customers exchange their deposit interest for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or XRP.

However, it was still down by more than 8% over the last seven days, underperforming the broader crypto market, which had shed about 5.4% of its value in the same period. XRP is also off over 18% across one month and nearly 49% year-on-year, while sitting 68% below its July 2025 all-time high.

But that decline isn’t all bad news, as on-chain analytics platform Santiment, using its 30-day MVRV metric, said the asset was in a “fair buy” zone where long-term investors could start accumulating.

Meanwhile, on the longer horizon, ChartNerd placed potential Fibonacci extension targets on XRP at $8, $13, and $27, as long as a proper cycle bottom forms before year-end.