$1,872 Could Decide the Next Move

Ethereum is retesting key Fibonacci level after a breakout attempt, with bullish momentum and whale profitability supporting continuation while overhead moving averages keep nearby reversal risk elevated.

Ethereum broke above two resistance levels on July 15 but failed to secure a daily close above the second, triggering a pullback toward the breakout area. ETH is now trading near $1,876 on July 16, almost directly on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at approximately $1,872.

The level has shifted from resistance into potential support. Holding it could confirm that buyers remain in control after the breakout, while losing it will probably expose the former July consolidation ceiling near $1,810.

Key Takeaways

The Breakout Now Depends on $1,872

The failure to close above the second resistance level does not invalidate the breakout on its own. Price has returned to the first important support created by the move rather than falling immediately back into the previous range.

According to post on X from Filip Vantchev, owner of Coindoo, successful retest of $1,872 would establish the 0.382 Fibonacci level as support and increase the probability of another advance. The first upside area sits between $1,940 and $1,960, followed by a stronger confluence between $1,985 and $2,000, where the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement meets the 100-day simple moving average.

The $1,810 level previously capped ETH for nearly 10 days before the breakout. A daily close below it is able place price back under the July consolidation ceiling and open a deeper pullback toward $1,720–1,745, where the 0.236 Fibonacci level aligns with the 50-day SMA.

Momentum Favors Buyers Without Looking Overheated

The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 60.9 and remains above its signal line. Momentum therefore favors the bullish scenario, but the reading is not yet high enough to indicate an overheated market.

That gives ETH room to continue higher if the retest succeeds. Momentum alone cannot establish a broader trend reversal, particularly with the 100-day SMA near $2,000 and the 200-day SMA around $2,100 still above price.

Those moving averages form the more important structural test. ETH can confirm a short-term breakout above $1,872 while still remaining inside a broader downtrend until it begins reclaiming the resistance clustered around $2,000 and $2,100.

Whales Have Returned to Unrealized Profit

CryptoQuant data shared by analyst Darkfost adds support to the bullish case. Ethereum whales holding more than 100,000 ETH have returned to an unrealized-profit state following the rebound, while their holding ratios have reached record highs.

Historically, periods in which this cohort moved into unrealized losses were rare and appeared near cycle bottoms. Previous returns to profitability coincided with either a broader rally or a shorter-term market rebound.

The metric suggests that the recovery has moved large holders back above their estimated cost basis. That can reduce immediate financial pressure on the cohort and is consistent with an improving market structure.

The historical sample is limited, however. The pattern is based on roughly three previous episodes, too few to establish that whale profitability reliably identifies a lasting bottom. It also cannot override the technical resistance created by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

ETH’s Breakout Has a Narrow Window to Prove Itself

The cleanest confirmation would be a daily close holding above $1,872 within the next days.

A daily close below $1,810 would deny the setup. Price could return beneath the July consolidation ceiling, repeating the failure pattern that restricted ETH through early July and shifting attention toward the $1,720-1,745 support zone.

Until either condition is met, the setup remains constructive but unconfirmed. Momentum and whale profitability favor buyers, while the broader downtrend and overhead moving averages continue to limit how far the current rebound can be interpreted as a structural reversal.

Author

Alex is Editor-in-Chief of Coindoo and co-founder of Millennial Media Group, with nearly a decade of experience covering financial markets – crypto first, then everything else.

It started in 2016 with Bitcoin. Like most people at the time, he didn’t fully understand it – so he kept digging. Blockchain, tokenomics, the projects, the cycles. That curiosity never stopped, and eventually pulled him into traditional markets too: equities, commodities, macro. Not because he left crypto behind, but because you can’t properly understand one without the other.

What drives him is straightforward: he wants to know why something is happening, not just that it’s happening. Most market coverage stops at the headline – price up, price down, here’s a chart. Alex finds that kind of reporting actively unhelpful. If you walk away from an article without understanding the mechanism behind the move, what did you actually learn?

He holds a degree in Tourism from New Bulgarian University – not the most obvious path into financial markets, but markets have a way of pulling in people who are simply too curious to stay out. He has authored over 200 in-depth analyses and more than 10,000 articles across crypto and traditional finance. He still thinks every day in markets teaches him something new. That’s probably why he hasn’t stopped.

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