CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s current distribution phase may be less a sign of structural weakness than a major transfer of supply from old market participants to US financial institutions, ETFs and new long-term holders.
In a series of posts on X, Ki argued that selling by Bitcoin OGs and long-time miners is part of a broad “change of hands” rather than evidence that the asset has exhausted its cycle. The key question, in his view, is not only how much supply is being sold, but who is ultimately absorbing it.
“I believe that the selling by Bitcoin OGs and long-time miners is part of a major shift in hands, transferring to US traditional financial institutions, investors, and ETFs,” Ki wrote. “So, I disagree with the claim that Bitcoin won’t do well anymore once the shift is complete and there’s no more liquidity coming in.”
Bitcoin’s Ownership Base Is Changing
Ki’s thesis centers on the composition of Bitcoin holders. He said that, for any asset, the long-term market setup depends heavily on the capital base behind it. If the new owners are institutions capable of attracting larger pools of liquidity over time, he argued, the transition could ultimately support another upward cycle.
“For any asset, what ultimately matters is who holds it,” he wrote. “If the people holding it now are entities that can bring in even greater liquidity going forward, then I think we can look forward to the next rally at any time.”
The argument marks a notable framing of the current market. Bitcoin has seen intense sell pressure even as large institutional buyers have continued absorbing supply. Ki described the current distribution phase as “a massive change of hands,” pointing to a market where old holders are distributing while ETFs, Strategy and newer cohorts take the other side.
Related Reading
According to Ki, Bitcoin investors’ average cost basis is around $53,000. Historically, he said, bear markets ended only after price fell below the realized price. He previously thought that level would be difficult to revisit because of institutional inflows and Strategy’s limited selling. But he said recent price action indicates “unusually strong sell pressure.”
The scale of absorption is central to his concern. Since January 2023, Strategy has bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, removing a net 711,174 BTC from circulation, according to Ki. Since March 2024, when Bitcoin was also around $63,000, ETFs have absorbed 509,102 BTC while Strategy bought another 650,706 BTC. Together, that amounts to 1,240,808 BTC absorbed, yet price has returned to the same level.
For context, Ki noted that exchange reserves sit around 2.7 million BTC, while Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to hold around 1 million BTC. In other words, more Bitcoin than Satoshi’s estimated stack, and nearly half of exchange reserves, has been absorbed without producing a sustained price advance.
Short-Term Buyers Are Maturing
Ki also pointed to a major shift inside the realized-cap structure. Bitcoin is at roughly the same price as two years ago, he said, but the holder base looks materially different. The 6-month-to-2-year cohort, representing investors who entered during this cycle, now accounts for 53% of realized cap, up from 15% two years ago.
That matters because, in Ki’s interpretation, short-term holders are gradually becoming long-term holders. He compared the current figure with the previous cycle, when Bitcoin bottomed after the same cohort reached 68% of realized cap. “Short-term holders are evolving into long-term holders,” he wrote.
Related Reading
The setup is not without risk. Ki reposted a separate observation from Julio Moreno stating that overall Bitcoin demand, including speculative and spot demand, is contracting at a monthly pace of 232,000 BTC. Moreno argued that the current correction is tied directly to Bitcoin demand conditions, not to equities, oil or macro indicators, noting that stocks are at all-time highs while manufacturing activity is improving.
Ki’s posts therefore present a split picture. On one side, current demand is contracting and sell pressure remains heavy despite historic institutional absorption. On the other, Bitcoin’s ownership base is migrating toward institutions and maturing newer cohorts that may provide a deeper demand base in the future.
Ki acknowledged that this transition comes with a cultural cost. “Honestly, in terms of rising asset value, I think traditional financial institution investors might provide an even stronger demand base than Bitcoin OGs,” he wrote. “Of course, in that process, some of the cypherpunk values may get diluted. I really regret that part too.”
For markets, the debate now turns on whether Wall Street’s growing share of Bitcoin ownership can offset the supply leaving older holders and miners. Ki’s conclusion remains constructive, but conditional on that transfer becoming a source of future liquidity rather than a ceiling on upside.
“Still, I believe there will definitely be another upward cycle for Bitcoin,” he wrote. “As an investor, I still believe in Bitcoin and think it’s worth waiting a bit longer.”
At press time, BTC traded at $62,696.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Be the first to comment