Iran signs MoU to end war as Polymarket puts Trump oil relief at 92%

Iran MoU to Extend Ceasefire Puts Sanctions Relief Back on Trump’s Table as “Oil Sanction Relief” Holds 92% on Polymarke

Iran’s agreement to a memorandum of understanding that could end the Iran war has put sanctions relief and other economic demands back at the center of talks involving U.S. President Donald Trump. On Polymarket, traders continue to price “Oil Sanction Relief” as the most likely Iranian demand Trump will agree to by June 30, even after a small dip in odds.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices “Oil Sanction Relief” at 92% Yes (8% No) as the leading outcome by the June 30 resolution.
• The market’s top outcomes cluster around economic concessions, with “Unfreeze Iranian Assets” also elevated at 70.5% Yes (29.5% No).
• The contract resolves June 30, 2026; the leading outcome is down 0.5 percentage point from 92.5% to 92.0% on the latest update.

Iran agreed on Sunday, June 14, to the final text of a memorandum of understanding that could end the Iran war, according to commentary by James M. Dorsey of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. The deal to be signed on Friday has not been published in full, but it is described as extending the ceasefire by another 60 days and setting a framework for negotiations. Those talks would cover Iran’s nuclear program, final arrangements for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, and the release of frozen Iranian assets. The commentary argues Iran may have emerged from the war stronger than before the Feb. 28 U.S. and Israeli attacks and may retain leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. It also says the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted upfront, easing oil exports, while Trump may face a harder task making a credible victory case.

Polymarket Data: $3.12M Matched Volume Prices “Oil Sanction Relief” at 92% vs “Unfreeze Iranian Assets” at 70.5%

Polymarket shows $3,119,988 in matched volume on “What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?” with “Oil Sanction Relief” leading at 92.0% Yes versus 8.0% No. “Unfreeze Iranian Assets” is priced at 70.5% Yes and 29.5% No, while “Troop Withdrawal” sits at 36.5% Yes and 63.5% No. Lower-probability outcomes include “Enrichment of Uranium” at 25.0% Yes and 75.0% No, and “Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz” at 16.35% Yes and 83.65% No, signaling traders view broader concessions as less likely by the deadline.

The key datapoint for this market is any confirmed agreement text or official action tied to sanctions relief or asset releases ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date.

Beyond Iran Talks: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching

Beyond the Iran-focused tape, Polymarket traders are also clustering into big-ticket U.S. political pricing, led by the 2028 cycle: 15.95% for JD Vance in “Presidential Election Winner 2028” on $629,288,867 of volume and 49.0% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” on $658,823,005. Event-driven contracts tied to Washington’s posture toward Tehran are also active, including 5.05% for June 30 in “Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by…?” on $3,560,916, while the smaller “Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?” market has traders pricing 100.0% for JD Vance on $526,295.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$3,119,988

Top strike rungs

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