Havering shelves ‘Hexit’ as Polymarket keeps Bardella atop 2027 race at 25.5%

Reform UK Shelves Havering “Hexit” Plan as Polymarket Keeps Jordan Bardella Favorite for Next French President

Reform UK’s new leader of Havering Council has moved to shelve the so-called “Hexit” push to take the borough out of the Greater London Authority, after the party won control of the council in May. The local dispute landed as Polymarket traders kept pricing Jordan Bardella as the front-runner in the “Next French Presidential Election” contract.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket’s leading outcome in the Next French Presidential Election market is Jordan Bardella at 25.5% (No 74.5%).
• Odds were flat on the latest snapshot even as traders monitored a fresh political row over “Hexit” and campaign messaging in Havering.
• The contract resolves by 2027-04-30, while the leader’s price is up 2.0 percentage points over both 24 hours and seven days.

Reform UK won control of Havering in May, its first London borough, after taking power from the Havering Residents Association. During the local election campaign, some Reform figures promoted “Hexit,” a proposal for Havering to leave the Greater London Authority, and spoke about giving residents a vote on the idea. Shortly after the election, the new council leader, Keith Prince, dismissed pursuing Hexit, calling it a poor use of time and money and pointing to a £70 million budget gap as a priority instead. Prince said the council could not deliver a departure from the GLA and argued the financial case had not been made, warning residents could be worse off, including on costs tied to travel and other services. Opponents accused Reform of misleading voters with promises they say are not deliverable, while the party denied wrongdoing and the report said leaving the GLA would require legislation from central government.

Polymarket Odds Snapshot: Bardella at 25.5% on $100.9M Volume, Philippe 19.5%, Melenchon 12.5%

On Polymarket, the multi-outcome “Next French Presidential Election” contract showed Jordan Bardella leading at 25.5% Yes versus 74.5% No on $100.9 million in volume. Edouard Philippe was next at 19.5% Yes / 80.5% No, followed by Jean-Luc Melenchon at 12.5% Yes / 87.5% No. Marine Le Pen was priced at 7.5% Yes / 92.5% No, indicating a wide spread behind the top two names rather than a tight, two-way market.

Any sustained repricing in the top tier of the Polymarket field—especially a narrowing gap between Bardella and Philippe—will be the key signal to watch ahead of the 2027-04-30 resolution date.

Beyond France 2027: Other High-Interest UK Political Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Tracking

Away from the France 2027 pricing, Polymarket activity is clustering in a handful of other political contracts where liquidity and sharp moves are drawing attention. In the U.S., “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” has Gavin Newsom leading at 24.65% on $1,200,141,341 in volume, while Latin America-focused traders have “Brazil Presidential Election” pricing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 51.5% on $100,808,669 and “Colombia Presidential Election” showing Abelardo de la Espriella at 87.5% on $37,410,361. UK-specific interest has also spiked in the niche “Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?” market, where “No” is priced at 99.15% on $4,244,851.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Next French Presidential Election
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Apr 30, 2027 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$100,906,701

Top strike rungs

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Sources

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