Gas prices near $4 as truce lowers risk, Polymarket puts Iran deal at 46%

Iran Enrichment Bet: “Yes” Odds Drop 11 Points After U.S.-Iran Truce Signals De-escalation and Hormuz Reopening

U.S. gasoline prices slid toward the $4-a-gallon mark after oil futures briefly dipped below $80, easing some of the energy shock tied to the Middle East conflict. On Polymarket, that shift in perceived geopolitical risk coincided with lower odds on the contract asking whether Iran will agree to end uranium enrichment by June 30.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices a 54.5% chance of “No” and a 45.5% chance of “Yes” on Iran ending uranium enrichment by June 30.
• Odds for “Yes” fell 11 points to 45.5% as markets digested signs of de-escalation tied to a U.S.-Iran truce and expected Hormuz reopening.
• The contract resolves on June 30, 2026, with the market showing a 22.5-point move over the past 24 hours.

U.S. gasoline prices eased toward the $4-per-gallon threshold on Tuesday as oil futures briefly fell below $80 for the first time since March. The national average pump price slipped to $4.04 a gallon, according to AAA data, down $0.13 from a week earlier and $0.47 from a month earlier. At least 24 states have already recorded average prices below $4, spanning much of the Midwest and Great Lakes region as well as the South. The decline followed the announcement of a U.S.-Iran truce agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route that had been close to a standstill since the conflict began, and the agreement is expected to be formally signed on Friday. Brent crude fell more than 3% to hover near $80 while WTI dropped below $77, though analysts said it could take weeks for a broader national decline at the pump to show up.

Polymarket Data: $4.39M Volume as “No” Leads 54.5% vs 45.5% “Yes” With a 22.5-Point 24-Hour Swing

On Polymarket, the binary contract “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” last implied 45.5% for Yes versus 54.5% for No, with No the leading outcome. The Yes side is down 11 points from 56.5%, while cumulative volume stands at about $4.39 million. The recent tape reflects high volatility, with the market’s 24-hour and 7-day change both at 22.5 points and the last five-point average at 49.9%.

The market’s next major catalyst is the expected Friday signing of the U.S.-Iran truce agreement referenced in the report, alongside any confirmed timeline for the Strait of Hormuz to resume normal oil flows ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date.

Beyond the Iran Contract: Other High-Impact Geopolitical and Energy Markets Polymarket Traders Are Tracking

Beyond that single enrichment deadline, Polymarket traders are also clustering around event-timed Iran-related contracts that could reshape the broader risk backdrop, including “US and Iran sign an agreement by…?” (100.0%) and “US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?” (99.95%, $429.18 million). Attention is also on documentation and verification markets such as “US-Iran deal text released by…?” (96.15%, $1.69 million) and second-order spillovers like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” (79.5% No, $25.10 million).

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
• Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Leading implied prob.: 45.5%
• Volume: ~$4,392,691
• Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 45.5% / No 54.5%; No: Yes 45.5% / No 54.5%

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Sources

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