US-Iran deal set to reopen Hormuz, but Polymarket prices 21% for June normal

Strait of Hormuz Reopening Deal: Polymarket “Yes” Odds Rise to 20.5% as Traders Price Slow Return

A US-Iran agreement to end the war is set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after more than three months of disruption, but analysts warn oil flows may not normalize quickly. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” implies traders still see a low chance of a full return by the June 30 deadline.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices a 20.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June, with “No” leading at 79.5%.
• Odds ticked up from 17.5% to 20.5% as headlines pointed to a reopening, even as expectations for a slow logistics-driven restart linger.
• The market resolves on June 30, 2026; the implied probability is down 22 points over the past 24 hours and 7 days.

Energy analysts warned that oil markets may take months to normalize even as the US and Iran announced an agreement to end the war that disrupted supplies. The deal is expected to be officially signed on Friday and would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which the report said has been closed for more than three months. The report said Brent crude traded around $81 a barrel on Tuesday, still 12% above late-February levels, while the Energy Information Agency forecast an average of about $88 a barrel in 2026 and Goldman Sachs projected roughly $80 by year-end. One research firm estimated that even with no new issues, tankers would not reach the Persian Gulf until mid-June at the earliest and that production could take about three months to fully return because of logistical bottlenecks. The report also cited comments that it could take until the end of June for ships to move through the Strait again, with peak summer demand and strategic reserve restocking expected to keep pressure on prices.

Market Pricing and Liquidity: $25.10M Volume with “No” Leading 79.5% Ahead of the June 30, 2026 Cutoff

Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” contract shows Yes at 20.5% and No at 79.5%, a 3-point rise in the implied Yes probability from 17.5%. Trading volume stands at about $25.10 million, suggesting a heavily trafficked market despite the lopsided pricing. The 24-hour and 7-day move in the model summary shows the Yes side down 22 points, indicating recent volatility and a still-dominant view that normalization by the end-of-June cutoff is unlikely.

Watch for further shifts in the Yes price ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date, especially if liquidity pushes the market away from the current 20.5%/79.5% split.

Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching

Beyond the shipping lane itself, traders are also clustering into diplomacy-timing contracts that attempt to pin down what comes next in the US-Iran track. The highest-volume market, “US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?”, is priced at 99.95% for December 31 on $429.18 million in volume, while “US and Iran sign an agreement by…?” shows 100% for June 22 with $14.26 million traded. Attention is also spilling into document-driven milestones, with “US-Iran deal text released by…?” at 96.15% for June 30, and into regional spillover risk via “Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?” where No leads at 85.1%.

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