Three reliable Bitcoin metrics as well as the Bitcoin halving calendar suggest the market may not have reached its bottom yet.
Bitcoin is trading at about $59,800, leaving the largest cryptocurrency roughly 53% below the all-time high it reached in October 2025. Amid the downturn, investors continue to question if the market has found a bottom yet.
However, three reliable on-chain indicators suggest the answer is still no, as they remain above the levels that marked previous cycle lows.
Bitcoin NUPL Not Yet in Negative Capitulation Zone
The first indicator is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures whether holders, on average, sit in profit or loss by comparing Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value.
At press time, the metric has dropped to 0.11, placing it in the Hope/Fear zone, but not yet in the negative Capitulation zone that appeared during the deepest parts of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
Long-Term Holder NUPL, which focuses only on long-term investors, shares similar data points. The indicator fell to about 0.19 in early June 2026, but it never dropped below zero during this cycle.
This is in contrast to November 2022, when the same metric fell to around -0.24, showing that long-term holders were sitting on overall losses.
Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score and Puell Multiple
The second metric suggesting that the bottom may not yet be in is the MVRV Z-Score. Notably, this indicator shows how far Bitcoin’s market value deviates from its realized value.
The metric has slumped to 0.22 at press time. This suggests that Bitcoin is trading close to fair value, but not at the deeply undervalued levels seen at earlier cycle lows.
For instance, when Bitcoin hit the $15,000 bottom in November 2022, the MVRV Z-Score dropped to -0.286. Meanwhile, during the COVID-19 bottom of around $5,000 in March 2020, the Z-Score hit -0.20.
The third indicator, the Puell Multiple, which tracks miner profitability, reached 0.51 on June 3. However, the reading was still above 0.5, the level that has historically signaled miner capitulation.
Although all three indicators have moved lower during the ongoing correction, none has reached the extreme levels that previously confirmed a market bottom.
Bitcoin Halving History Suggests Bottom Later This Year
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle provides some pointers that could help investors evaluate when the cycle bottom could emerge.
The latest halving took place in April 2024, and data from the previous three cycles shows that Bitcoin usually reaches its bull-market peak about 12 to 18 months after a halving. Bear-market bottoms have typically followed 24 to 28 months after the same event.
This cycle has followed that pattern. Specifically, Bitcoin reached its high in October 2025, about 18 months after the April 2024 halving.
Using the same 12-to-15-month peak-to-bottom period seen during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets points to a likely bottom between October 2026 and January 2027. Within that range, Q4 2026 appears to be the most likely period for the cycle low.
Analysts and Historical Trends Support the Same View
Several respected research firms and industry experts have reached a similar conclusion. Research from CryptoQuant and Glassnode, along with analysis from Benjamin Cowen and PlanB, all mention the fourth quarter of 2026 as the most likely time for Bitcoin to form its bottom.
December also stands out because Bitcoin reached major bear-market lows near $3,200 in December 2018 and around $15,500 during the November 2022 capitulation.
Based on those historical patterns, the current cycle appears to be about four to six months away from its likely bottom, not just four weeks.
Previous Bitcoin drawdowns also suggest that further declines could still play out. The cryptocurrency lost about 94% during the 2011-2012 bear market, 87% in 2013-2015, 84% in 2017-2018, and 77% in 2021-2022.
If this long-term pattern continues, this cycle could end with a decline of roughly 60% to 70%, which would place Bitcoin’s bottom somewhere between the high-$30,000s and the low-$50,000s, based on the $126,000 cycle peak.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
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