TLDR
- MU fell 5.7% after TSMC raised capex guidance to $60–$64 billion, pressuring the broader semiconductor sector
- A day earlier, MU dropped 8.2% on fears of Chinese rival CXMT’s $8.55 billion IPO and weakening memory prices
- SK Hynix’s 15%+ drop on its Nasdaq debut July 10 added contagion pressure across memory names
- MU is now trading at $848.34, down 26.5% from its 52-week high of $1,154 set in June 2026
- Several major analysts maintain Buy ratings with price targets ranging from $1,400 to $1,600
Micron has had a rough few days. The memory chipmaker’s stock is down sharply after a wave of sector-wide selling pulled it away from all-time highs. At $848.34 per share, MU is now 26.5% below its June 2026 peak of $1,154.
The first blow came when TSMC reported strong revenue but raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $60–$64 billion, up from a prior ceiling of $56 billion. That capex reset spooked investors across the semiconductor space, sending MU down 5.7%.
TSMC confirmed AI demand remains “extremely robust,” but the market shifted focus to cash generation. Higher capex means compressed free cash flow, which puts pressure on the sector’s already stretched valuation multiples.
The day before, MU had already dropped 8.2%. That selloff was driven by reports that Chinese chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is preparing for an $8.55 billion IPO — a signal of growing long-term competition.
On top of that, cloud company CoreWeave was reportedly exploring financial tools to hedge against a potential drop in memory chip prices. That kind of move from a major customer raises questions about near-term pricing strength.
Memory names also felt the sting from SK Hynix’s (SKHY) Nasdaq debut on July 10, when it plunged more than 15%, dragging the whole group lower. Geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz added further pressure on risk assets, with semiconductors leading declines.
What the Charts Are Saying
On the daily chart, the technical picture is bearish. RSI sits at 41, the Stochastic RSI hit 0.000 — deeply oversold — and MACD confirms negative momentum at -15.3. Short-term signals across every timeframe point to a Strong Sell.
Zoom out, though, and the story changes. Weekly and monthly signals flip to Strong Buy. Weekly RSI is a healthy 59 and MACD remains positive at +177.6. MU is up 631% over the past year, and analysts say the pullback sits inside a structurally intact uptrend.
The key level to watch: $813–$825, where the weekly uptrend meets the recent daily flush. A close below $786 would be a more serious warning sign.
What Analysts Think
Wall Street hasn’t flinched. Citi has a Buy rating with a $1,400 price target and added Micron to its 90-Day Upside Catalyst Watch List. TD Cowen has a $1,600 target, pointing to supply tightness persisting beyond 2027 and DDR ASP growth of 15%+ in Q3. UBS says DRAM will remain undersupplied until at least Q2 2028, with demand growth of 36.2% year-over-year in 2027 against supply growth of just 19.3%. BofA called the pullback a “healthy reset before rally.”
DA Davidson added that MU has entered a new era with Supply Commitment Agreements now covering nearly 50% of revenues — a far cry from its old boom-bust commodity cycle.
Bears aren’t silent, though. Michael Burry initiated put options near $1,052 on July 1, close to the all-time high. Insider selling hit its highest level since 2010, with Director Lynn Dugle selling approximately $1.5 million worth on June 30.
Micron’s next earnings are scheduled for September 22, 2026.
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