Bitcoin traded near $65,150 at the time of writing, up approximately 1.3% over 24 hours after the United States and Iran refrained from striking each other for a second consecutive day.
Key Takeaways
- Markets price a one-in-three July hike chance.
- $67,370 is the main breakout test.
- Hormuz shipping remains down roughly two-thirds.
- BOJ policy adds carry-trade risk.
- Tech earnings will test broader risk appetite.
- Stablecoin inflows increase available buying power.
According to Reuters, Iran indicated that it would continue withholding retaliatory attacks while the United States did the same. West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 5%, easing some of the inflation pressure created by the conflict.
Crude topped $100 a barrel last week, so a 5% decline still leaves prices where they feed inflation, and the shipping disruption behind the rally has not cleared.
Bitcoin Still Needs to Clear $67,370
Fibonacci retracements mark the depths at which a prior move commonly pauses, while a moving average shows the average price paid over a set number of sessions. Both function partly because enough traders act on them to make the levels self-reinforcing.
Bitcoin remained above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $63,700 and the 50-day simple moving average around $63,300. That cluster absorbed the latest pullback and preserved the recovery from the June low.
The immediate hurdle is the July 27 high near $65,680. A move above it could extend the rebound, although the more meaningful resistance sits at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement around $67,370.
A daily close above that level would open room towards the 100-day SMA near $69,500. That average is still falling, which is what makes it the test of whether Bitcoin is changing its medium-term structure or only bouncing inside it.
The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $70,300 and the 200-day SMA around $72,000 form the next resistance area.
RSI stood near 54, reflecting mildly positive momentum without an overbought reading. There is room for price to rise, though momentum alone does not confirm a breakout.
The Oil Risk Premium Has Not Cleared
Energy is one of the largest inputs into headline inflation, and headline inflation is what central banks respond to. Crude prices therefore reach Bitcoin through monetary policy before any other channel.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded 53 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the week to July 20, down 66% from 157 the week before. Tanker and gas carrier crossings, which move most Gulf crude and liquefied natural gas, fell to 30 from 90.
Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes through that waterway. What traffic continues moves in short windows, whenever operators judge the risk acceptable.
Renewed strikes or an attack on energy infrastructure could send prices back above $100 quickly, lifting yields and reversing the conditions that helped Bitcoin recover $65,000.
The Fed Could Still Hike This Week
Bitcoin produces no income, so its appeal moves inversely to what safe assets pay. Rising Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding it, and a firmer dollar means each dollar of incoming demand buys less.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on July 28 and 29, with its statement and press conference scheduled for Wednesday. Economists broadly expect the benchmark rate to stay at 3.5% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting.
The tail risk sits on the other side. Nearly half of policymakers indicated at the June meeting that they would support a rate hike later this year, and markets now assign roughly a one-in-three probability to an increase this week. Nine of 18 participants projected at least one hike before year-end, against eight for no change and one for a cut, and the median year-end rate rose to 3.8% from 3.4%.
Chair Kevin Warsh has moved the Fed away from explicit forward guidance and declined to submit his own projections in June, which removes the usual signal ahead of the decision. There is also no dot plot at this meeting.
For Bitcoin, the risk is uneven. A hold is largely priced in and will most likely produce a limited reaction. A hike, or a hold paired with language keeping September live, would lift yields into a market that has not positioned for it. Across the 2022 to 2023 tightening cycle, Bitcoin’s sharpest declines tracked surprise more closely than the hikes themselves. The worst of them followed expectations moving from 50 to 75 basis points in the week before the June 2022 decision, and expectations for this meeting have moved on a similar timescale, with the probability of a hike roughly doubling over eleven days in mid-July.
The BOJ Adds Yen Carry-Trade Risk
Near-zero Japanese rates made the yen the cheapest major currency to borrow, funding leveraged positions across global markets for two decades. As the Bank of Japan raises rates, that funding becomes more expensive and those positions get closed.
The Bank of Japan meets on July 30 and 31, two days after the Fed. A hawkish message could strengthen the yen and make yen-funded investments less attractive, prompting investors to sell liquid assets across several markets.
BTC does not need to be purchased directly with borrowed yen to feel the effect. Crypto trades continuously and can become an early source of liquidity when leveraged portfolios are being reduced.
Balanced guidance alongside no change would keep that pressure contained. A surprise increase, or a clear signal that the next hike is approaching, could move the yen sharply and raise crypto volatility. A hawkish Fed followed by a hawkish BOJ would tighten conditions from both directions inside three days.
Tech Earnings Will Test Broader Risk Appetite
Microsoft reports on July 29, alongside Meta. Amazon and Apple follow on July 30.
Strong cloud growth, advertising demand or guidance on artificial-intelligence returns could support equities and help BTC hold its recovery. Weak forecasts or concern over excessive AI spending could produce the opposite reaction.
The timing may make individual causes difficult to separate. Microsoft and Meta report on the Fed day, while Amazon and Apple release results shortly before the BOJ decision.
Stablecoin Inflows Show Available Capital
According to CryptoQuant, stablecoins associated with US investors are flowing back to exchanges.
Stablecoins sitting on a venue can be spent immediately, so rising inflows expand the pool of money positioned to buy without confirming that any buying has happened.
CryptoQuant’s official metric guide notes that inflows to spot exchanges may represent potential buying pressure. Deposits sent to derivatives venues can instead support either long or short positions and may increase volatility.
Rising spot volume alongside a daily close through resistance would show that capital being deployed. Balances building while price stalls beneath it would show the same money waiting.
What Could Confirm the Recovery?
The rebound will most likely gain credibility if the pause holds, Hormuz traffic recovers enough to bring crude down further, and the Fed avoids signalling a September move. Strong technology earnings and stablecoin-backed spot buying would add support.
On the chart, the first confirmation is a daily close above $67,370, with the 100-day SMA near $69,500 carrying more weight.
The setup weakens if Bitcoin loses the support cluster it defended last week. That would expose the recent trading area around $62,000, followed by the June low near $57,800.
Bitcoin reclaimed $65,000 on a pause in hostilities that could reverse within a day. This week will show whether that is enough to carry price through resistance, or whether a hawkish central bank and a blocked shipping lane return control to sellers.
- Disclaimer: This article is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Geopolitical events, central-bank decisions and corporate earnings can cause sudden volatility, while technical levels and on-chain data cannot guarantee future performance.
- Methodology: Bitcoin levels are based on the supplied BTC/USD Bitstamp chart dated July 27, 2026. Geopolitical and oil-market information comes from Reuters and CNBC, citing Lloyd’s List Intelligence shipping data. Federal Reserve expectations and June projection figures are from CBS News and the Federal Reserve. Meeting dates are sourced from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, earnings dates from official company investor-relations pages, and stablecoin interpretation from CryptoQuant.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.
Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem.
To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem.
His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
Be the first to comment