XRP Maintains Controlled Correction as Historical Pattern Suggests Major Weekly Rally Ahead

XRP remains in a downtrend, but the weekly chart suggests the decline has stayed under control instead of turning into a panic-driven selloff. 

The price action currently shows a healthy correction, with traders taking profits and weaker holders leaving the market. As a result, the market has avoided the sort of sharp collapse that often follows widespread panic selling.

Notably, since falling from its $3.6 peak in July 2025, XRP has spent the last 12 months trading inside a descending channel. 

During this period, buyers have repeatedly defended the lower trendline whenever the price came under heavy pressure, while sellers have continued to cap recoveries near the upper trendline. 

This tug-of-war between buyers and sellers has kept XRP on a gradual downward path instead of triggering a much steeper decline.

XRP Trades Within Descending Channel

The structure of the correction has remained consistent throughout the past year. XRP has continued to form lower highs and lower lows, a pattern that has kept the descending channel intact.

After falling from its $3.6 all-time high in July 2025, XRP dropped to $2.7 by September 2025 before attempting a recovery. This rebound carried the token to $3.1 by October 2025, but the move lost momentum after running into resistance at the channel’s upper trendline.

Since then, XRP has met resistance at $2.69 in October 2025, $2.41 in January 2026, and $1.54 in May 2026. Each rejection occurred along the upper trendline.

This trendline sits around $1.21, while XRP currently trades at $1.06. With the price now approaching the apex of the pattern, the market could soon face a major test. If XRP breaks above $1.21, it could move out of the descending channel and open the door to a broader recovery.

XRP’s Large Weekly Gains

Meanwhile, historical data further reveals that XRP has repeatedly posted major weekly gains 51 to 52 weeks later, and these strong moves have mostly occurred in July.

One instance came in July 2023, when XRP recorded a 59.54% weekly gain following the favorable ruling in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit. The pattern appeared again in July 2024, when XRP posted a 24.05% weekly gain before adding another 15.03% the following week.

The trend continued in July 2025. During that month, XRP gained 24.89% in one week and followed it with another 21.81% gain in the next. Because this pattern has repeated over the past several years, the market could be close to another similar move.

A Possible Delay This Year

Unlike previous years, XRP has not recorded a similarly strong weekly candle in July 2026. However, some analysts believe the expected move may simply arrive later than usual. They expect it could play out in early August instead of July.

Importantly, the Clarity Act could provide the catalyst for such a rally. If that happens, XRP could finally deliver the strong weekly gain that historical data has pointed to.

A rally of that size could also push XRP above the descending channel’s upper trendline at $1.21, allowing the token to break out of the year-long pattern and possibly begin a broader recovery. 

However, this remains a possible scenario, not a certainty, and should not be taken as investment advice.