- Jim Cramer said on CNBC on Monday that he plans to sell his Bitcoin, five days after IBM chairman and chief executive Arvind Krishna answered his question about quantum computing on the same network.
- Google Quantum AI research published in March cut the estimated requirement for breaking Bitcoin keys to about 500,000 physical qubits, roughly 20 times fewer than earlier estimates.
- Blockstream chief executive Adam Back puts a cryptographically relevant quantum computer 20 to 40 years away, against Krishna’s three to four.
Former hedge fund manager and CNBC host Jim Cramer said he plans to sell all of his Bitcoin after IBM chairman and chief executive Arvind Krishna told him on air that investors should become “rather paranoid” about quantum computing’s threat to cryptography within a few years.
Krishna gave the warning on July 30, answering a question from Cramer about whether quantum machines could crack the cryptography protecting cryptocurrency holdings. “I think that you should give yourself three or four years, and at that point, I would get rather paranoid about it,” Krishna said, citing IBM’s progress toward commercially useful quantum machines.
Cramer said on Monday that he would act on it: “I’m going to sell mine.” He has not said how much Bitcoin he holds, and has not confirmed selling any of it.
What Quantum Would Break
Bitcoin verifies ownership with the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, and a sufficiently large quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could in principle derive a private key from a public key that has already been exposed on-chain.
Addresses whose public keys have never been revealed are substantially better protected. Older reused addresses carry the greater theoretical risk.
Google Quantum AI narrowed the hardware estimate on March 30, publishing a roughly 20-fold more efficient implementation of Shor’s algorithm that put the requirement at about 500,000 physical qubits.
Current machines operate at hundreds to low thousands of physical qubits.
Named Experts Differ by Decades
Cryptographer and Blockstream chief executive Adam Back has put the arrival of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer 20 to 40 years out, “if then”.
He noted that the US National Institute of Standards and Technology standardised the quantum-secure signature scheme SLH-DSA in 2024 and that Bitcoin can adopt such schemes over time.
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has argued the window is two to five years. Bitcoin has not settled on a specific proposal.
Coinbase’s independent advisory board on quantum computing and blockchain urged the industry on June 11 to begin migrating Bitcoin, Ethereum and other networks to quantum-safe cryptography immediately, saying the industry should not wait for consensus on a single approach.
Krishna separately said he expects quantum computing to contribute measurably to IBM’s revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029.
Crypto investors met Cramer’s announcement by reviving the “inverse Cramer” joke that markets move against his calls, a reaction CNA also recorded the last time he turned bearish on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin traded at US$64,369 (AU$91,404) on Wednesday, up 0.94% over 24 hours, for a market capitalisation of US$1.29 trillion (AU$1.83 trillion).
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