Weekly Candle May Rewrite Bitcoin Cycle

Bitcoin is trading around $83,850, testing the limits of classical macroeconomic models. Its powerful surge above the May local high has forced bears to capitulate and even the most committed believers in four-year cycles to admit they were wrong.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of the analytics platform Into The Cryptoverse, openly acknowledged that his bet on a market decline had not worked out. The analyst expected the combined pressure of rising energy prices, the Fed’s hawkish monetary policy and surging U.S. Treasury yields to send Bitcoin searching for a new bottom. 

Instead, the cryptocurrency has completely ignored the macroeconomic headwinds.

“Bitcoin broke through the May high this week, which I clearly got wrong,” Cowen said, adding that Bitcoin had so far simply shrugged off negative factors, catching him by surprise.

Will one candle decide it all? Why traders are watching Sunday

Despite the bulls’ local triumph, an undercurrent of uncertainty remains in the market. Long-term U.S. yields continue to rise, which has historically drained liquidity from risk markets. In Cowen’s view, this factor is already beginning to affect other sectors, but Bitcoin is still holding its ground. 

“The rally above the May high certainly humbled me,” he admitted, adding that he is now trying to be less deterministic in his forecasts.

The analyst is urging traders to set aside the euphoria for now and focus on the upcoming weekly close, which could rewrite the current market cycle. 

If Bitcoin closes the week above the May peak, it would decisively break the bearish structure. But if momentum fades by the end of the week and the price falls back into the old range, the move higher will prove to have been a false breakout.

“For breakout traders, I think the weekly candle is worth watching closely,” Cowen said, emphasizing that the close will show whether the market confirms the breakout or investors face a failed attempt to leave the range amid rising interest rates and a supply shock.