Kalshi’s Sept. 1 contract now trades at 2 cents, while the price on enactment before Jan. 1, 2028 ticked up, moving the implied probability out of this year and into the next.
Prediction-market traders cut the odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year after Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to file cloture on the motion to proceed to the crypto market structure bill on Tuesday night and instead filed cloture Wednesday morning on a college sports bill and the nomination of Todd Blanche.
Kalshi’s contract on a crypto market structure bill becoming law before Jan. 1, 2027 last traded at 22 cents, down from a previous price of 30 cents. On Polymarket, the “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?” market priced Yes at 15.5 cents, down 8.5 points on the day, 12 points on the week and 32.5 points over the past month. That market has traded $4.76 million in total volume, including $896,780 in the prior 24 hours, according to data last updated at 12:06 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Money moved down the calendar rather than out of the series. Kalshi’s contract on enactment before Sept. 1, 2026 fell to 2 cents from 4 cents, with roughly 962,000 contracts of open interest. The before-July 2027 contract slipped to 43 cents from 49 cents. But the before-October 2027 contract rose to 58 cents from 55 cents, and the before-January 2028 contract rose to 65 cents from 64 cents.
Because the contracts settle on cumulative deadlines, the gap between the 2027 and 2028 strikes implies traders assign about 43 cents of probability to enactment during calendar 2027 — roughly double the 22 cents they now assign to the rest of this year.
Procedural Vote
Thune told reporters Wednesday that he still wants a procedural vote on the bill after filing cloture on the college sports and Blanche measures. “We’re sequencing it but there are some things still out there that we want to do,” he said, according to Punchbowl News reporter Laura Weiss, adding that he would gauge cooperation and interest over the next day or two.
Journalist Eleanor Terrett attributed Tuesday’s non-filing to procedural matters tied to the ongoing continuing resolution, and said a lack of votes and unresolved major issues likely also factored in. Wednesday’s filing on the college sports bill, she said, signals there is still no bipartisan agreement on CLARITY. A cloture filing puts a vote on the schedule 30 hours later.
Kalshi has already settled one deadline against the bill. Its contract on enactment before Aug. 1, 2026 resolved “no” on Aug. 1 after about 1.11 million contracts traded. Under the series rules, only congressional legislation signed into law pays out; executive orders, regulatory guidance, agency rules, stablecoin-only bills and bills that clear a single chamber do not count.
The House passed H.R. 3633 last year, and the measure reached the Senate floor needing at least seven Democratic votes to break a filibuster.
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