Is MP Materials (MP) Stock a Buy After a Strong Q2 and Nine-Figure Defense Contract?

TLDR

• MP Materials posted Q2 2026 revenue of $108.5 million, beating analyst estimates by 13.33%
• NdPr production hit 840 metric tons, up 41% year-over-year, with sales volumes up 127%
• Adjusted EBITDA swung to $28.5 million from a loss of $12.5 million in Q2 2025
• The company secured a nine-figure long-term offtake deal with a new U.S. aerospace and defense customer
• Wall Street has a median 12-month price target of $78.50, roughly 39.5% above the current price of $47.49

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MP Materials stock closed at $47.49 on August 6, down 0.88%, before edging up to $47.67 in after-hours trading. The stock remains about 52.7% below its 52-week high of $100.25.

MP Materials Corp., MP

Revenue came in at $108.5 million for Q2 2026, up 89% from a year ago. That beat the analyst consensus of $99.18 million by a healthy margin.

Adjusted diluted EPS came in at -$0.01, just missing the $0.01 consensus. The company reported a quarterly net loss of $20.3 million, or -$0.11 per share on a reported basis.

$MP MATERIALS Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $108.5M (Est. $99.2M) 🟢; +89% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: -$0.01 (Est. -$0.00) 🔴
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $28.5M (Est. $28.6M) 🟡
🔹 NdPr Sales: 1,006 MT; +127% YoY

Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 Materials: $95.6M; +155% YoY
🔹 Magnetics: $16.5M;…

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) August 6, 2026

Consolidated revenue including price protection agreement (PPA) income reached $126.1 million. That compares to $57.4 million in Q2 2025, more than doubling year-over-year.

Adjusted EBITDA improved by $41 million year-over-year, swinging to a profit of $28.5 million from a loss of $12.5 million in the same quarter last year.

Production Hits Key Milestones

NdPr production reached 840 metric tons in the quarter, up 41% from 597 metric tons in Q2 2025. Sales volumes of 1,006 metric tons matched Q1 levels and were up 127% from the prior year.

The Materials Segment generated $113.2 million in revenue and PPA income, with adjusted EBITDA of $32.5 million. That’s a $45.2 million improvement from the $12.7 million loss in Q2 2025.

The company also announced a new long-term contract described as a “nine-figure” deal with an American aerospace and defense customer for separated gadolinium. Commissioning of its dysprosium/terbium circuit is underway, adding to the product lineup.

The Magnetics Segment brought in $16.5 million in revenue, with adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 million. Precursor production margins have stayed above 40%.

Commercial Deliveries on Track for Q4

Magnets have been delivered to General Motors for in-car qualification testing. Commercial deliveries to GM are still expected to begin in Q4 2026.

MP Materials also launched “Project Swarm,” targeting the drone industry by aggregating demand and standardizing specs. Subscription agreements have been signed with multiple U.S. and allied customers.

Capital expenditures hit $230.3 million in Q2, bringing first-half spending to $308 million. Full-year 2026 capex guidance remains at $500 million to $600 million.

The company held $1.45 billion in cash and short-term investments as of June 30, 2026.

For Q3, management guided NdPr production to exceed 1,000 metric tons. PPA income is expected at roughly $10 per kilogram, with NdPr oxide priced in the high $90s per kilogram.

Of the 20 analysts covering the stock, all 20 rate it a “buy” or “strong buy.” The median 12-month price target is $78.50.