What a time to be a part of the cryptocurrency markets. Unless, of course, you shorted the market on Wednesday. Then, you might have been caught on the wrong side.
XRP was a no-show for weeks (and months). The token lost multiple key support zones on its painful way down and eventually slumped to $1.00. It even dipped below that level on a couple of occasions last week for the first time in 21 months.
Then it all changed. On Wednesday afternoon bitcoin rallied the altcoin troops and initiated a market-wide revival. Ripple’s token was a little late to the party, but once it arrived, it blew the roof off this place by skyrocketing from $1.00 to $1.42 within a day or two, marking a multi-month high. The bulls kept going until Saturday morning, driving the asset to $1.70 – or a 70% surge in days.
However, it was violently rejected there and is now back toward $1.40. As such, the question is whether the bear market has ended. After all, XRP is well in the green on a weekly and monthly scale.
Has It? Has It?
First, we asked ChatGPT. It admitted that the move was “huge” and that it “absolutely changes the short-term picture.” However, it cautioned investors that it doesn’t necessarily mean the bear cycle has ended. In fact, it put the odds that the $0.98-$0.99 low was the bottom at just 55%, compared to 70% that BTC’s $57.8K drop in early July was as low as the asset would go.
As such, ChatGPT noted that there’s still a 45% probability that this was a relief rally inside a broader bear market.
“The reason is simple: $1.60-$1.70 is exactly where XRP starts confronting the long-term trend, not where it conclusively breaks it.”
Grok outlined the bigger picture. Even with the brief surge to $1.70 (and subsequent retracement to $1.40-$1.45), XRP remains roughly 60% away from its July 2025 all-time high. It’s also deep in the red on a YTD scale, even though this recovery is “not trivial.”
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The positive side of the coin suggests that large market participants, often referred to as whales, have returned to the XRP scene, purchasing millions of tokens in the past week alone.
Technical Hurdles
Gemini was also quite cautious when concluding whether XRP had turned the tables. However, it outlined a few major hurdles still in its path that remain far above and have to be overcome for a full reversal. The first is the 33-month EMA, which lies at around $1.60. XRP has challenged it unsuccessfully so far, and it has emerged as the first major obstacle on the path to full recovery.
On the plus side, XRP has seemingly reclaimed the 200-day EMA located at around $1.34. If it manages to close above it on the weekly scale, it could shift the narrative from bearish to bullish.
Consequently, Gemini’s verdict, which was pretty similar to the ones from ChatGPT and Grok, is that the aforementioned rally proves that “heavy demand still exists at key psychological levels.”
“However, until XRP can cleanly break and hold above the 200-day EMA and the $1.60 structural resistance, this move is technically classified as a ‘relief rally’ within a broader consolidation phase.”
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