Crude oil prices remained under pressure Thursday as renewed diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz encouraged traders to price in the possibility of recovering Middle East supply. Brent and WTI have pulled back sharply from recent highs, but tight diesel inventories, elevated refined-product prices and a projected global oil deficit suggest the market is still vulnerable to renewed supply pressure.
Reuters reported Brent crude at $87.43 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $81.86 early Thursday, extending multi-session declines as Iran, Oman and Qatar pursued talks aimed at easing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, the waterway carried oil and gas flows equivalent to roughly one-fifth of global consumption, while recent oil traffic has remained far below normal levels.
WTI Crude Price Struggles Below $84 as Momentum Remains Soft
WTI has attempted to stabilize after a sharp retreat from the $87-$88 area, but the four-hour chart still shows crude trading below an important short-term trend measure.
The supplied chart places WTI near $82.51, below its 50-period exponential moving average at approximately $83.99. That leaves the $84 area as the first meaningful resistance zone bulls need to reclaim.
A sustained move above the moving average could reopen the path toward $86, followed by the recent $87-$88 swing area. Until then, the technical structure remains cautious because price is trading beneath a declining short-term trend barrier.
On the downside, the $80-$81 region is the nearest important support zone. Buyers recently appeared around that area, making it the first level to watch if selling resumes.
The four-hour relative strength index has recovered to roughly 42.6 after falling closer to oversold territory. That suggests downside momentum has eased, but an RSI below 50 still points to limited bullish strength.
Brent Crude Tests Support After Falling Below Its 50 EMA
Brent is showing a similar technical structure, with price attempting to recover after dropping sharply from the mid-$90s.
The supplied chart shows Brent near $86.51, while its 50-period EMA stands around $89.06. That places $89-$90 as an important recovery zone and potential resistance if prices rebound.
The first visible support sits around $84-$85. A break beneath that area would weaken the short-term structure and could expose lower levels from the early-August trading range.
Brent’s four-hour RSI is near 37.9, recovering from a recent move toward oversold territory. As with WTI, that rebound suggests selling pressure may be slowing, but momentum has not yet shifted decisively in favor of buyers.ly.
Diesel Prices Remain Elevated as Distillate Stocks Tighten
The more striking supply signal is coming from refined fuels, particularly diesel.
The weekly chart shows ULSD futures around $4.10 a gallon, substantially above the 50-week EMA near $3.28. Prices remain elevated after a sharp 2026 rally, highlighting tighter conditions in middle distillates even as crude prices have retreated.
The EIA said U.S. distillate inventories fell 2.2 million barrels to 103.4 million barrels in the latest reporting week, leaving stocks about 14% below the five-year seasonal average. Gasoline inventories also declined by 2.5 million barrels, while U.S. refinery utilization remained high at 97.4%.
That divergence matters. Crude inventories are not showing extreme scarcity, but diesel and other refined products remain significantly tighter, which can help preserve upside pressure across the broader energy complex.
Hormuz Talks Clash With OPEC+ Supply and Global Deficit Risks
The geopolitical side of the market remains equally important. Progress toward restoring more normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could remove part of the risk premium that pushed oil prices higher during the conflict.
OPEC+ is also preparing to increase September production quotas by another 188,000 barrels per day, adding a potential source of supply if member countries can deliver the planned barrels.
However, the International Energy Agency still expects the global oil market to run a roughly 1.8 million-barrel-per-day deficit during the third quarter. The IEA has also highlighted tight conditions in refined products and declining observed inventories.
For crude oil prices, the near-term battle is becoming increasingly clear. WTI needs to reclaim roughly $84, while Brent faces resistance around $89-$90. On the downside, $80-$81 for WTI and $84-$85 for Brent are the key areas to watch.
If Hormuz diplomacy continues to advance, crude prices could remain under pressure. But if negotiations stall or already-tight diesel supplies deteriorate further, the current decline could reverse quickly as traders rebuild geopolitical and supply-risk premiums.
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