The rising channel dates back to Dogecoin’s earliest trading history, making its latest break more significant than a routine pullback.
Analyst Ali Martinez says the $15 Dogecoin target he has been tracking since the token’s early days is dead, now that DOGE has broken below the long-term rising channel the whole thesis was built on.
The call undoes months of bullish setups other analysts pointed to through August, from whale accumulation to a technical buy signal that had suggested a rally back toward that same structure.
The Channel That Defined the $15 Case Just Broke
The channel in question is a rising parallel one that Martinez says has defined Dogecoin’s price action since inception. Every time the price touched its lower boundary, it marked what he calls a generational buying opportunity, pointing to gains of 9,221% in 2017 and 30,694% in 2020.
When DOGE returned to that support in February 2026, the setup pointed to the possibility of another historic run, with $15 as the projected target. Now that DOGE has broken below the boundary, Martinez says the move has removed “the technical foundation behind the $15 thesis.”
The OG meme coin was trading around $0.0806 at the time of writing, down about 6.6% for the week and 3% on the day, sitting just below the $0.0813 level several analysts had flagged earlier this month as the line to hold.
Against Bitcoin, the token is almost flat, down about half a percent, so this isn’t a case of DOGE lagging some broader market pullback so much as losing a level tied to its own chart. It also remains 89% below its all-time high of $0.7316, set in May 2021.
How the Bullish Case Built Up Through August
The bullish case has been building for weeks. On August 15, Martinez pointed to a monthly TD Sequential buy signal alongside an inverted hammer and a developing doji candle, a combination he compared to a setup from August 2022 that preceded a 145% monthly rally.
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He also flagged whale wallets adding more than 430 million DOGE that week. As CryptoPotato reported, the meme coin had slumped below $0.07 days earlier, its lowest level in almost three years, with active addresses climbing from 38,000 in July to 44,000, and other analysts, including Crypto Patel, marking the $0.07 to $0.10 range as a long-term accumulation zone.
By late August, DOGE had rallied 30% in a week to near $0.09, clearing that $0.0813 level the market was watching. More aggressive traders went further still, with MikybullCrypto calling for $3 and Vuori Trading predicting $10, a target that would require Dogecoin’s market cap to top $1.5 trillion.
That rally has since faded, with DOGE back under the same resistance it broke through weeks earlier.
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