Trump comments on ‘citizen’s dividend’, affirms Xi’s expected US visit

Asia market update: JGB and Yen traders wait Masu’s press conference for further clarity on rates; Trump comments on ‘citizen’s dividend’, affirms Xi’s expected US visit ; $100 oil and Bessent disappointment keep yields elevated; US price data due on Thurs-Fri; TSMC Aug sales in focus, along with the ECB and 30-year UST auction.

General trend and developments

– Masu seems likely to support further BOJ rate hikes; To complete the normalization of monetary policy in Japan, I am convinced that the Bank needs to raise the policy interest rate further, according to the board member. His press conference may shed light on the future pace and intervals of the BOJ’s rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Aug Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data suggests Japan’s labor market remains tight as the figure keeps hitting multi-year lows. Recall, Jul real wage growth, also, beat estimates. ‘Proper’ monetary policy is needed to deal with wage growth, said Masu.

– During US President Trump’s 2026 RNC / GOP National Midterm Convention at the American Airlines Center, Dallas. Trump’s comments indicated that the midterm elections could be close as 35 races are ‘swings’; Other topics of Trump’s speech included a ‘Trump or citizen’s dividend’ if the Republicans win the midterm elections. Recall, Trump had previously promised a ‘tariff dividend’ before the US Supreme Court rejected the IEEPA tariffs back in late-Feb.

– Trump added that President Xi is confirmed to arrive in a couple of weeks, in line with the White House’s confirmation of a September 24th arrival.

– Over the U.S. market session, the U.S. Treasury announced a $6B liquidity-support buyback of more-mature 10 and 20-year nominal coupon bonds, at a +$2B raise from the previously announced maximum sized operation of $4B announced on August 19th, 2026. Later during the U.S. session, the 10-year notes reopened at its highest level since August 8th, 2007 at 4.834% (vs. 4.580% prior on July 8th, 2026) along with a healthier bid-to cover reading of 2.71x (vs. 2.57x over the last 8 reopenings). Looking ahead, the US 30-year bond auction is scheduled for Thursday, September 10th.

– At the beginning Asia, Brent reopened +0.1% at $101.67/bbl (v $101.21/bbl prior), whilst WTI crude FUTs reopened +0.6% at $97.31/bbl (v $96.70/bbl prior). Brent had retested/breached $100/bbl on Wednesday, September 9th, 2026, but WTI has yet to reach the $100/bbl level. The move comes amid heightened and continued Iran-related geopolitical tensions.

– Recall, Iran has said it expects to reach an agreement on a temporary Strait of Hormuz route in the coming days. Specifically on Mon [Sept 7th], Iran’s Top Security Official outlined plans of a restricted zone to be announced outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, extending from the line of the US Navy’s blockade into the Gulf. Vessels entering the zone will face sanctions, with Iran and Oman expected to sign maps defining authorized shipping routes in the coming days. The routes were recently extended from Chabahar into parts of the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea.

– US equity FUTs flat to +0.2% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

-Sun Sep 6th: OPEC Meeting, (Sun night, JP Aug Foreign Reserves – USD).

-Mon Sep 7th: CN/HK Foreign Reserves – USD, EU Q2 GDP & Employment, (Mon night, KR Q2 GDP, JP Q2 GDP, AU July Building Approvals, JP 5-Year JGB Auction, DE July Trade Balance, SA Q2 GDP).

-Tue Sep 8th: TW Aug CPI, CN Aug Trade Balance, (Tue night, KR Aug Unemployment Rate, JP M2 & M3 Money Stock, CN Aug CPI/PPI, ID Aug Consumer Confidence, MY July Industrial Production).

-Wed Sep 9th: TW Aug Trade Balance, US 10-Year Note Auction, (Wed night, TH Aug Consumer Confidence, ID July Retail Sales, DE Aug CPI).

-Thu Sep 10th: OPEC Monthly Report, EU ECB Interest Rate Decision, US Aug PPI, US Aug Existing Home Sales, US 30-Year Bond Auction, (Thu night, NZ Aug Business PMI, JP Q3 BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions, JP Aug PPI, MY July Unemployment Rate, UK July GDP & Industrial Production & Trade Balance).

-Fri Sep 11th: IEA Monthly Report, RU Interest Rate Decision, US Aug CPI & Core CPI, US Sep Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, WASDE Report, RU Q2 GDP & Aug CPI.

-Sat Sep 12th: CN Aug New Yuan Loans & Total Social Financing & M2 Money Stock.

Holidays in Asia this week

-No holidays in Asia this week.

-Mon Sep 7th: (Note: “Labor Day” – U.S. markets closed, reduced liquidity).

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 opens -1.1% at 8,815.

-(AU) Australia Sept Consumer Inflation Expectation: 4.9% v 4.9% prior.

-(AU) Follow up: Australia government advance plans to establish 20% gas reserve – Press.

-(AU) NVDA To build up to 2GW AI factories in Australia by 2027 – US financial press.

-(AU) YAL.AU Follow up: Australia Mining and Energy Union: Yancoal told workers at the Premier Coal they cannot have both ‘decent’ pay increases and protection for redundancy entitlements.

-(NZ) New Zealand Finance Minster has rejected RBNZ’s bid to spend money it did not use in the previous financial year in the following year – US financial press.

-(NZ) New Zealand sells NZ$450M vs. NZ$450M indicated in 2031, 2036 and 2041 bonds; Prices NZ$25M vs. NZ$25M indicated in 3.00% inflation-indexed Sept 2030 bonds: Avg yield 1.700% v 1.6025% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.64x v 3.32x prior (May 13th, 2026).

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite opens -0.5% at 2,513; (HK) Hang Seng opens -1.1% at 25,985.

-(CN) China’s NDRC holds roundtable with firms including Amazon, Nvidia, and Dell on five-year plan; the meeting include representatives from 60 US companies. – CCTV.

-(CN) China Commerce Ministry: Regarding US issuing cybersecurity announcements related to China companies, the allegations are baseless [EU market close].

-(CN) China purchases 1Mt of US soybeans ahead of President Xi visit [scheduled for September 24th, 2026] – US financial press.

-(CN) Follow-up: China ‘willing’ to hold AI discussions with the US despite rows over AI models – US financial press.

-(CN) Follow-up: China warns bankers not to flood the IPO market with ‘low quality’ companies – FT.

-(CN) US Treasuries ‘doubts’ open the window for China Yuan globalization – Chinese Securities Times.

-(CN) Convertible bonds seen as a new tool for China property developers – Shanghai Securities News.

-(CN) HUAWEI.CN Faces a U.S. criminal trial just weeks ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.- WSJ [update].

-(HK) 9988.HK Takes on Anthropic with 50% cheaper e-commerce AI agent – Nikkei [update].

-(CN) USD/CNY China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7766 v 6.7769 prior (strongest level since February 8th, 2023).

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY3B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY3B v injects CNY0B prior.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 opens -0.5% at 64,824.

-(JP) BOJ Board Member Masu: The 1-year to around 2-year real interest rates are still negative; Need to keep price trend from going above 2% – Speech at a meeting with local leaders in Fukui [prefecture], Japan.

-(JP) Aug Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies: 1.9% v 2.0% prior [new multi-year low].

-(JP) Japan Chief Cab Sec Kihara: Aim to address abduction issue firmly to realize Japan-North Korea summit meeting.

-(JP) Japan Education Minister may be replaced in Cabinet reshuffle – FNN.

-(JP) Japan releases weekly flows data [period ended Sept 4th]: Foreign buying of Japan equities: ¥690.0B v ¥35.9B prior; Japan buying of foreign bonds: +¥111.9B v -¥824.0B prior.

-(JP) Fitch Sovereign Analyst: Agency to scrutinize Japan’s next budget for signs of balance between growth spending and fiscal restraint.

-(JP) Japan sells ¥700B vs ¥700B indicated in Liquidity Enhancement Auction.

-(JP) Japan regional banks face deposit risks amid competition – US financial press.

-(JP) Japan to develop submarine-sensing drones by FY31 – Nikkei.

-(JP) 8053.JP Sakana AI, SCSK, Sumitomo Corporation form AI pact agreement.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi opens -0.2% at 7,039.

-(KR) Follow Up: South Korea considers joining US-led Strait of Hormuz maritime coalition – Donga.

-(KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) warns on derivatives ties to Korean chipmakers.

-(KR) 000660.KR SK Hynix’s South Korean Union to vote on tentative wage deal on September 15th and 16th – Source.

-(KR) 010950.KR Signs KRW4.12T contract.

-(KR) 005490.KR South Korea workers at the co. said to plan the first strike at the company since its founding; the strike may impact steel production.

– US financial press [update].

Other Asia

-(ID) Indonesia July Retail Sales Y/Y: +1.1% v -3.0% prior.

-(PH) Philippines June Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $447M.

-(IN) SRG Housing Finance denies reports related to ‘fictitious’ loan accounts – Press.

-(TH) Thailand sells THB40B vs. THB40B indicated in 1-year bonds: Avg Yield: 1.02356% v 0.94476% prior, bid-to-cover 1.25x v 2.06x prior.

North America

-(US) President Trump: Pretend I’m on the ballot this November; affirms China President Xi plans to visit the US in 2 weeks; mentions $5,000/person Trump/citizen’s dividend – The President attends the RNC Midterm Convention [Pre-Credentialed Media], American Airlines Center, Dallas.

-(US) Treasury announces to buy back $6.0B in nominal coupons [US market close].

-(US) TREASURY’S $39B 10-year note reopening draws 4.834% V 4.580% prior; bid-to-cover ratio: 2.71 V 2.59 prior and 2.57 over last 8 reopenings [US market close].

-(US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 4th: -2.7% v 0.8% prior [US market close].

-(US) Follow up: President Trump: [Reiterates] President Xi is coming in two weeks.

-(US) Treasury Sec Bessent: It’s a defining moment in the history of the Republic – GOP National Convention.

-(US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -0.3M v -2.6M prior.

-(US) President Trump plans to send $500 Obamacare rebates before election – Axios.

-(US) US State Department: US, Poland sign $4B foreign military financing loan guarantee – Emailed Statement.

-(US) CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz: Trump Administration working on more drug pricing deals.

-(US) CMS Admin Oz: Governors are worried that Medicaid coverage of GLP-1s is too expensive.

-(US) US Agricultural Under-Secretary Lindberg: China ‘on track’ to fulfill farm purchases ahead of President Xi’s Washington visit – SCMP.

-(US) Follow-up: FHFA Dir Pulte: Will include Fannie, Freddie credit scoring data in MBS.

-(US) OPENAI.IPO Comments: Pushing for mandatory national AI safety requirements.

-(US) OPENAI.IPO Said to remove Adobe and other companies for advertising competing AI products in ChatGPT – The Information.

-(US) NVDA DOJ said to probe whether Nvidia tried to evade antitrust scrutiny of its licensing deal with Groq which was disclosed in 2025 – NY.

-(US) F CEO pushes back further on US Transportation Sec Duffy’s China criticism, defends jobs and China tie-ups – WSJ.

-(US) BA Follow up: NTSB Recording: One pilot of crashed Amazon cargo plane commented to the other about excessive speed throughout last 1 minute, 42 seconds of cockpit voice recording.

-(CA) Tribunal submits report concerning certain vegetable goods: The purpose of this inquiry was to determine whether certain vegetable goods were being imported into Canada in such increased quantities and under such conditions as to be a principal cause of serious injury or threat of serious injury to domestic producers / directly competitive goods.

-(MX) Mexico Aug Total Formal Job Creation: +38.3K v -19.6K prior [US market close].

-(BR) Brazil Planning Min Moretti: Confirms two diesel subsidies by the end of the month; Subsidies cost govt BRL5B per month.

Europe

-(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Russia is open to three-way Russia-US-Ukraine talks [EU market close].

-(PL) Poland central bank (NBP) leaves base rate unchanged at 3.75%; as expected [EU market close].

-(FR) France PM Lecornu: Aim to lower one-off tax on big companies in budget [EU market close].

-(NL) Netherlands July Manufacturing Production M/M: +1.6% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 9.0% v 5.0% prior.

-(NL) Netherlands Aug Producer Confidence Index: 3.7 v 2.4 prior.

-(UK) Aug RICS House Price Balance: -28% v -30%e.

-(UK) 388.HK LME: Steel futures contract w/ Shanghai price to start October 27th, 2026.

-(FI) Finland July Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v +1.9% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.4% prior.

Middle East

-(IR) IAEA’s Board of Governors passes resolution reporting Iran to UN Security Council for breaching non-proliferation obligation.

-(IR) IRGC’s spokesman: Ships passing restricted Hormuz zone face sanctions; Maritime restricted area extends from Chabahar into parts of Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea [EU market close].

-(IR) Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson: US vessels and bases were targeted in a defensive strike [EU market close].

-(IR) New explosions reported around Qeshm and Sirik on Iran’s coast.

-(IR) Strait of Hormuz vessel transits on Wed declined to 7 ships v 12 prior [the 10-day avg is 14] – US financial press.

-(SA) Saudi Civil Defense issues emergency alert for Saudi Arabia’s Khamis Mushait and Abha [near the Yemen border].

-(SA) Follow up: Saudi Arabia: Alerts in Khamis Mushair [near the Yemen border] to warn of potential danger; Danger has passed in Khamis Mushait.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 -0.4%; ASX 200 -1.4%; Hang Seng +1.3%; Shanghai Composite -0.4%; Kospi -0.2%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.2%; Nasdaq100 flat; DAX +0.2%; FTSE100 -0.1%.

EUR 1.1641-1.1629; JPY 153.74-153.30; AUD 0.7224-0.7208; NZD 0.5855-0.5833.

Gold +0.4% at $4,419/oz; BTC -0.7% at $78,447; WTI Crude Oil flat at $96.05/bbl; Copper +0.1% at $6.8605/lbs.