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Ahmed Barakat
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This Monday morning, traders are asking, ‘Why is crypto down today?’ as total crypto market capitalization fell -2% to about $2.9 trillion on Sunday and into Monday, September 28, after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin slipped to near $82,000 after briefly topping $85,000; Ethereum traded near $2,650; and XRP stayed just below $1.50, interrupting the crypto market’s September rebound.
The question isn’t whether a single rejected diplomatic overture can move a $2.9 trillion asset class on its own. It’s whether the Trump-Iran standoff is the trigger point for a repricing that was already forming around oil, yields, and Federal Reserve expectations.
Why is Crypto Down Today? The Hormuz Strait and Trump Causing Fresh Fear Across the Markets
Iran had put a specific plan on the table at the UN General Assembly: a seven-day window to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and pause fighting before wider talks. Trump turned it down.
He said Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon” and that the conflict should end “very soon,” while declining to rule out new strikes before the November midterms. No fresh military action had been confirmed as of publication.
The mechanism connecting that decision to crypto prices runs through energy markets. WTI crude traded above $93 in Monday’s early session, and Hormuz remains the primary corridor for Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
Higher oil raises inflation expectations, and the 10-year Treasury yield has already moved above 5% since the conflict began – a level that historically dents appetite for risk assets.
This includes the kind of leveraged momentum that helped push Bitcoin back above $85,000 earlier in the rebound. That’s a stated transmission channel, not proof that Trump’s announcement alone caused Monday’s drawdown.
Why Crypto Fell Even as Sentiment Stayed Greedy
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index read 74, still in “Greed” territory and barely changed from 70 a day earlier and a week earlier. That’s the puzzle: sentiment gauges didn’t collapse even as prices did, pointing to leverage unwinding rather than a wholesale shift in conviction.
CoinGlass data show about $330.18M liquidated over 24 hours across 107,013 traders, with longs absorbing $230.65M and shorts $ 99.53 M. Bitcoin accounted for $79.24M of that total, Ethereum $51.93M, and XRP $16.05M; the single largest order was a $6.54 million BTCUSDT position on Binance.
The Fed side of the equation has shifted faster than the liquidation numbers. CME FedWatch now shows a 68.1% probability of a hike to 400-425 basis points at the October 28 meeting, up from 57.6% a week ago and just 17.7% a month ago, a swing that has left Bitcoin facing a fresh rate-hike headwind even before the Hormuz news broke.
Oil-driven inflation pressure and a repriced Fed path together explain more of Monday’s move than the Iran headline in isolation, though the two are not easily separated.
The Levels That Matter for BTC, ETH and XRP
Bitcoin’s key resistance sits at $84,800. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said if that breaks, we’ll see a continuation toward the $90,000 levels.
Aksel Kibar took the opposite read, saying the weekly candle near $84,000 to $85,000 does not look like a decisive breakout and that hesitant price action could send price back into the range.
Ethereum trades above its rising 20-day average near $2,602, with a daily RSI around 62 – firm, not overheated. Major resistance sits at $2,807; a close below the 20-day average opens a path toward $2,426 and then the $2,265-$2,259 zone.
XRP has spent roughly six weeks failing to clear the $1.50-$1.60 wall, and that ceiling remains the token’s defining technical problem regardless of what happens with oil or the Fed.
What Could Move Crypto Next
This week’s economic calendar gives traders concrete data, not headlines, to react to. The August personal income, spending, and PCE index lands September 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the September employment report on October 2 and an ISM manufacturing print the same week.
PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and a hot print would reinforce the 68.1% odds of an October hike rather than reverse them. Any renewed diplomatic movement on Hormuz, a shipping corridor proposal, a ceasefire framework, anything that eases oil-supply anxiety, would cut against the current setup, though nothing in the record confirms that’s imminent.
Until then, the conditional paths are clear: Bitcoin above $84,800 opens $90,000, Ethereum holding $2,600 keeps the breakout narrative alive, and XRP stays stuck until it closes decisively above $1.50.
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