TLDR
- Bitcoin’s push toward $90,000 stalled below $87,722 as weekly ETF inflows dropped from $2.39 billion to $241.1 million.
- Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000 late Tuesday, hitting $83,800 as crypto liquidations reached $555.6 million.
- ETF investors reached their average breakeven price of $84,320 after 233 days underwater, per Bitfinex.
- Analysts point to $82,000-$82,500 and $84,000 as key support zones to watch this week.
- Treasury yields sit at 19-year highs, and September CPI data lands Oct. 14 ahead of the Fed’s late-October meeting.
Bitcoin’s push toward $90,000 has stalled. Price fell below $87,722 after hitting $87,197 on Oct. 2, then retreated toward $84,000.
Bitfinex analysts say the pullback came as weekly ETF inflows fell from $2.39 billion to $241.1 million, a drop of about 90%.
The analysts expect Bitcoin to trade between $84,000 and $87,722 this week. They say the upside case still holds, but it depends on new spot buying.
ETF Investors Reach Breakeven
Using Checkonchain data, Bitfinex places the average ETF purchase price at $84,320. Bitcoin stayed below that level for 233 days before reclaiming it on Sep. 21.
🚨𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡:🇺🇸 Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $118.8M on October 6.
BlackRock clients bought $122,000,000 worth of $BTC 🟢 pic.twitter.com/fOQgEdopJQ
— DustyBC Crypto (@DustyBC) October 7, 2026
Analysts say investors hitting breakeven may explain the slower buying. They note that purchases often pick up once holders build a larger profit cushion.
On Sep. 30, a $148.7 million ETF withdrawal ended a nine-day inflow streak worth $3.08 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT led the week with $450.2 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC lost $168 million.
Trader Ted, who posts as TedPillows, put the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year at 40%. He said the real number may be lower due to weak spot demand and rising leverage, and expects $100,000 could instead arrive in early 2027.
40% chance that Bitcoin will cross $100,000 this year.
I think the actual chances are lower than this despite Q4 being the most bullish quarter.
The reason is weakening spot demand and rising leverage, which often results in correction and then sideways price action.
IMO,… pic.twitter.com/TJuUHbFnLX
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 6, 2026
Bitfinex also pointed to futures activity. Open interest rose $2.1 billion in the day before the September payrolls report, then fell $1.5 billion as prices dropped.
Liquidations Hit Hundreds of Millions
Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000 late Tuesday, trading as low as $83,800, before settling at $84,071, down 1.7% over 24 hours.
Crypto liquidations reached $555.6 million in 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Long positions made up $487.2 million of that total.
Zeus Research analyst Dominick John said the pullback was driven mainly by profit-taking and forced long liquidations tied to a build-up in open interest and funding rates.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin’s bull market support band is moving up fast to follow the recent price move. He noted Bitcoin often retests this band later in a bull cycle, sometimes at a different price once the band shifts higher.
$BTC‘s Bull market support band is starting to move up quickly to follow this recent move.
Generally BTC does end up retesting the bull market support band at some point in a new bull cycle.
Of course this can be at a later date and different price. After the band itself has… pic.twitter.com/bskDGXG7MM
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) October 6, 2026
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index read 62 on Tuesday, down from 67 the day before. That still points to greed, though sentiment cooled slightly.
ViaBTC chief analyst Jeff Ko said Bitcoin closed the third quarter up about 40%, with $6.5 billion in ETF inflows. He said holding $82,000 to $83,000 would keep the pullback looking like a normal pause after the September breakout.
Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang placed the main downside liquidation zone between $82,000 and $82,500. She said losing that area could push price toward $80,000.
Zhang’s bullish case needs Bitcoin to hold $82,000 and reclaim $87,500 before a move toward $95,000. Bitfinex puts $84,000 as the level where 75% of supply remains in profit.
Treasury yields stayed high, with five-year yields above 5% and ten-year yields above 5.2%, both at 19-year highs.
September payroll growth came in at 29,000, lowering the odds of an October rate hike. Core inflation of 3% keeps a December move possible.
The next inflation report, September CPI, lands Oct. 14, ahead of the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting.
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