HYPE delivered one of the strongest rallies among large-cap crypto assets in September, climbing from roughly $50-$60 at the beginning of the month to a record $97.90 on Sept. 22.
The token remained near $90-$93 in early October, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum traded further below their respective highs.
The rally has been closely linked to activity on Hyperliquid. Total open interest reached approximately $14.3 billion in early September, approaching levels seen shortly before the October 2025 market crash.
The protocol also directs close to 97% of fees generated by its core crypto perpetual markets toward HYPE buybacks. Since launch, those buybacks have reportedly reached roughly $1.3 billion worth of HYPE.
The token’s role within the Hyperliquid ecosystem has also expanded. On Sept. 18, the protocol introduced manual borrowing, allowing users to use HYPE or BTC as collateral for stablecoin loans. The feature reportedly generated about $269 million in borrowing during its first day, alongside more than $400 million in supplied liquidity.
That development strengthens the case for HYPE as an asset increasingly connected to Hyperliquid’s financial infrastructure rather than simply serving as a governance token.
The protocol’s HIP-3 ecosystem has expanded as well, allowing third-party builders to create perpetual markets linked to stocks, commodities and other assets.
By late September, HIP-3 had approximately $3.96 billion in open interest across 150 active markets, representing about 23% of Hyperliquid’s total perpetual open interest. Activity remains concentrated, however, with one builder accounting for nearly 98% of HIP-3 open interest.
Institutional access has added another layer to the story. Three U.S. spot HYPE ETFs held approximately $502 million in assets as of Sept. 25, although inflows had slowed from their early-September peak. Binance also listed HYPE with a Seed Tag on Sept. 24, initially contributing to a roughly 4.5% decline as some large holders moved tokens to exchanges.
Hyperliquid price prediction: Can HYPE reclaim $98?
The technical picture has weakened from the September peak. HYPE fell to around $86 after reaching nearly $98, breaking below the short-term moving average that had supported the rally through much of August and September.
The decline does not yet resemble a capitulation event. Trading volume has generally declined through September, while the latest sell-off occurred with moderate activity. That suggests the market may be experiencing profit-taking and consolidation rather than a full reversal.
HYPE remains above its medium- and long-term moving averages, preserving the broader bullish structure. The token previously recovered from the $77-$78 area, reclaimed $80 and then broke through the $87-$90 range before entering price discovery.
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At the same time, the rally has pushed momentum indicators into overbought territory. RSI remained around 70-75 for extended periods before the latest decline, while the move from roughly $57 in early September to almost $100 left the token significantly extended from its longer-term trend.
The $98-$100 area is therefore the immediate technical hurdle. A sustained break above that zone could open the way toward the $110-$120 area based on technical extensions. Conversely, failure to reclaim $98 could leave HYPE consolidating between roughly $80 and $90, with $80-$85 emerging as the next important support zone.
Positioning data also suggests that the market is not uniformly bullish. Wallets with more than $1 million in profits, described as the “Money Printer” cohort, hold approximately $2.82 billion in longs against $2.88 billion in shorts, leaving the group with a net-short exposure of about $60 million.
Smaller profitable traders show a more bullish bias. The $100,000-$1 million cohort holds about $879.1 million in longs versus $419.1 million in shorts, while wallets with $10,000-$100,000 in profits hold approximately $526.9 million in longs against $188.7 million in shorts.
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Another factor for traders is the scheduled October token unlock. Up to $856 million worth of HYPE was expected to be released on Oct. 6, making it the largest individual token unlock among assets scheduled for the month. Such an increase in potential supply could add pressure if recipients choose to sell.
Overall, HYPE’s September rally remains supported by strong protocol activity, aggressive buybacks, expanding borrowing and perpetual markets, and growing institutional access. However, the move toward $100 has also produced increasingly stretched technical conditions.
The next phase is likely to depend on whether Hyperliquid can translate its growing protocol activity and revenue into sustained demand for HYPE. For now, $98-$100 remains the key resistance zone, while $80-$85 is the more important downside area to watch.
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