TLDR
- XRP trades near $1.40, down about 7% over the past week after failing to clear $1.60.
- XRP spot ETF inflows reached only $4 million in October, versus $121.4 million in September.
- Exchange inflows hit their highest level since July 2026, which points to possible selling.
- Analyst ChartNerd says XRP fell below the 50-week EMA and may build a base in Q4.
- Support sits at $1.38, $1.32 and $1.26, with a mid-term target of $1.80.
XRP is trading near $1.40 on October 9. That is down about 7% over the past week and about 8% from $1.5222 two days ago.
The token failed to clear the $1.60 resistance during its latest leg up. It then pulled back sharply from that level.
Trading volume remains high at around $3 billion. That equals nearly 4% of XRP’s circulating market cap.
The wider crypto market is also showing weakness. Early buyers appear ready to take profits on long positions.
The Fear and Greed Index has dropped from a recent high of 80 to 58. That reading sits on the Neutral side.
Macro conditions are somewhat better than they were two weeks ago. The FOMC minutes released Wednesday did not change the baseline view on rates. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to delay its next rate hike until at least December, since August PCE inflation came in below estimates.
ETF Inflows Slow While Exchange Deposits Rise
Demand from exchange-traded funds has cooled. XRP spot ETFs took in $121.4 million in September, but only $4 million has come in so far in October. That is a pace of roughly $17 million for the full month.
On-chain data shows a different trend for exchanges. Inflows to exchanges have risen to their highest level since July 2026.
That was when XRP began a slow slide from $1.14 to $1. Analyst Alejandro Arrieche expects a similar result this time, as investors appear ready to sell large volumes.
XRP is also nearing its 200-day exponential moving average. Arrieche expects a strong rebound from the $1.38 area once the price reaches that mark.
If the drop continues, the next support is $1.32, where XRP has bounced several times before. The Relative Strength Index has fallen below its signal line and is nearing 40, which shows bearish momentum.
The last line of defense is $1.26, a former zone of strong demand. Arrieche still expects the rally to resume and keeps a mid-term target of $1.80.
The X account XRP Update also pointed to the level in a post. It said the next major support is now in play and called $1.26 the level to watch, urging holders to stay the course.
$XRP: THE NEXT MAJOR SUPPORT IS NOW IN PLAY!
$1.26 IS THE LEVEL TO WATCH! 💥📉
HOLD THE LINE, XRP ARMY! 🫡 pic.twitter.com/qf1kNtW24Y
— XRP Update (@XrpUdate) October 8, 2026
Analyst ChartNerd has a different near-term view. He says XRP was rejected at the 50-week EMA after failing to climb back above $1.52.
I remain optimistic that we clear this pocket and push to the $1.80/$2 vicinity. However, while $XRP has been compressing beneath the 50 week EMA for the past 6 weeks, the potential remains for a higher low base build similar to 2022. It would be constructive, not bearish. pic.twitter.com/HyF8OLx380
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) September 29, 2026
He expects XRP to keep falling and spend more time forming a base in the fourth quarter. He compares the setup to 2022, when XRP made higher lows below a falling 50-week EMA before a major rise.
ChartNerd notes that XRP has not yet shown the same confirmation. If XRP moves back above the 50-week EMA, his earlier $1.80 to $2 target returns.
Other analysts have also weighed in. Ali Martinez says XRP needs a monthly close above $3.66 to confirm a path toward $9.49. Peter Brandt sees a possible move to $2.16 based on an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
XRP is currently trading at $1.40, down 0.02% in the latest reading.
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