A recent Galaxy Research analysis revealed significant losses among retail traders on Polymarket’s international platform. The firm found that 69.2% of roughly 2.9 million human-paced “retail” accounts finished below break-even. According to the report, these accounts posted aggregate losses totaling $338.9 million.
As the report reads:
“Out of retail accounts, 69.2% finished below break-even (unprofitable). In aggregate, the population is down $338.9m.The median retail account is down ~$3.00, and half the population falls between -$36.64 and +$0.40. These are amounts that wouldn’t change anybody’s life. As expected, the money is in the tails. The first percentile is -$4,804 and the 99th is +$3,381.”
The research relied on on-chain settlement data curated by Stork. The study found clear differences in trading behavior after different outcomes. Notably, an estimated 15.2% of accounts did not trade again within 30 days after a loss. By comparison, only 6.1% of accounts stopped trading within the same 30-day window after a win. This gap suggests losses may prompt more accounts to step away than wins encourage continued activity.
The research found that winning tends to keep users on the platform, with 6.1% of accounts not opening another position within 30 days after a win. Meanwhile, after a loss, 15.2% of accounts did not open another position. Losing accounts are reportedly 2.5x as likely to walk away.
 
The research also found notable concentration in participation patterns. About 44.1% of traders concentrated more than 60% of their activity in a single topic. Specialization across topics produced mixed profitability results.
Sports specialists made up 47% of specialists overall, but the group recorded the lowest profitability rate at 25.1%.
In contrast, tech and science specialists achieved the highest profitability rate at 41.2%. The tech and science sample was smaller, which the analysis noted as a limiting factor for drawing broader conclusions from that category.
Notable differences also appeared in how profitable and unprofitable traders sized their positions. Profitable traders had a median position size of $13.96, while unprofitable traders showed a lower median position size of $10.
At the same time, holding time displayed no clear relationship with profitability. The data did not show a consistent link between how long positions were held and whether traders ended up profitable.
Overall, Galaxy’s findings show that most of the roughly 2.9 million human-paced retail accounts on the platform finished underwater, with aggregate losses of $338.9 million and distinct patterns in post-loss exits, topic concentration, specialization outcomes, and position sizing.
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