Is Apple (AAPL) Stock a Buy as iPhone 18 Pro Demand Cools?

TLDR

• Apple stock fell about 1% on Friday after a report said the company is cutting iPhone 18 Pro component orders.
• Nikkei Asia reported October orders are down roughly 15-20% from initial estimates.
• Weaker than expected demand is being blamed on higher prices for the iPhone 18 lineup.
• Analyst Gene Munster says lead times are now roughly in line with last year’s iPhone 17 Pro.
• Morgan Stanley trimmed its Apple price target slightly to $355 but kept earnings estimates mostly unchanged.

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Apple stock dropped more than 1% on Friday to close at $336.64 a share. The decline came after a report from Nikkei Asia said the company is cutting back on parts orders for its newest iPhones.

Apple Inc., AAPL

The report said Apple told several suppliers to reduce component production for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Two people familiar with the matter said October orders are down roughly 15% to 20% from what was initially planned.

Apple did not respond to requests for comment on the report.

Why Demand May Be Cooling

The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max launched on September 9. Apple raised prices by $100 on the new models, pushing the Pro to $1,199 and the Pro Max to $1,299. The company also raised prices on iPads and Macs.

$AAPL reportedly cut iPhone 18 Pro component orders by 15% to 20% as higher prices weigh on demand.

With memory costs pushing iPhone prices higher even Apple is starting to see limits of passing those costs to consumers. pic.twitter.com/STyhtoG5Cv

— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) October 9, 2026

Higher prices are tied to a global shortage of memory and storage chips. AI data centers are consuming huge amounts of chip supply, pushing costs up across the tech industry.

Sales looked strong in China during the first few weeks after launch. But global demand has reportedly weakened since then as the pricier components work their way into retail prices.

One executive told Nikkei Asia the company does not yet know how things will play out. It is still unclear if Apple will adjust its orders again in November.

Not every supplier is affected equally. The report said the production cuts hit some suppliers but not all of them.

Tata Electronics is a major manufacturer of the iPhone 18 Pro. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Qualcomm also supply Apple with chips for the device.

Market Reaction Across the Supply Chain

TSMC shares fell 1% in New York trading on Friday. Qualcomm stock dipped only slightly.

Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster pointed to lead time data as a useful signal. Lead times, the wait between ordering and delivery, fell 31% for the iPhone 18 Pro.

Lead times for the larger iPhone 18 Pro Max actually rose 1%. Combined, Munster said the numbers are now roughly in line with last year’s iPhone 17 Pro launch.

Munster wrote that the fast decline in recent weeks softens the case for a strong December quarter. He said the most recent data points matter most when reading these trends.

He also flagged Apple’s upcoming foldable iPhone Duo as a wild card. The $1,999 device ships October 23 and could pull some buyers away from the Pro lineup.

Munster expects first-year Duo unit sales near 20 million. That is double the roughly 10 million units some current estimates project.

Not every analyst is worried. Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring said his team has not seen meaningful supply chain adjustments since the two phones launched.

Woodring called Apple’s product roadmap one of the most exciting in over a decade. His team kept its earnings outlook for the company largely unchanged.

Morgan Stanley held its EPS estimate near $10 for fiscal 2027 and close to $11 for 2028. The bank did trim its price target slightly, from $360 to $355, citing uncertainty around long term monetization in Apple’s services business.

The iPhone Duo launches October 23, and its early sales performance will be the next major data point for investors watching the lineup.