XRP is approaching a critical technical juncture as Elliott Wave analysis points to a possible recovery toward $3, provided key support levels hold and buyers regain control of resistance.
Recent chart studies present a mixed picture for the cryptocurrency. The XRP price may be approaching the end of its corrective phase, although sellers retain control below $1.45. A potential breakout toward $2 remains possible if the current support structure holds and the price follows previous trendline patterns.
XRP Price Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Structure Points to $3
An analysis shared by Carolina (@Carolinatcwnl) on October 8 suggests XRP may be approaching the end of an ABC Elliott Wave correction. The framework tracks corrective price movements before a potential new upward impulse, although the pattern requires confirmation from subsequent price action.
XRP may be nearing the end of an ABC Elliott Wave correction, with support at $1.38, $1.29, and $1.21 critical to sustaining a bullish outlook toward $1.45, $1.80, $2.40, and potentially $3.00. Source: @Carolinatcwnl via X
The analysis identifies $1.38, $1.29, and $1.21 as important support levels. Holding these areas would help preserve the proposed bullish structure, while a sustained decline below them could weaken the recovery scenario.
The projected upside levels begin at $1.45, followed by $1.80 and $2.40. A move toward $3 or higher represents a more ambitious target that would likely require sustained buying pressure and successful breaks above intermediate resistance.
The Elliott Wave outlook also identifies a longer-term possibility above $5. However, that projection depends on the broader pattern developing as expected. It should not be interpreted as an immediate price target or a confirmed outcome.
At the time of the October 8 analysis, XRP was trading around $1.35–$1.41 after recently dipping toward $1.31. This price action places the identified support zones at the center of the near-term outlook.
XRP Faces Resistance Near $1.45
The bullish Elliott Wave scenario faces a significant technical obstacle around $1.45. A separate four-hour analysis by a TradingView contributor indicates that XRP remains in a short-term downtrend, with its price trading below two important exponential moving averages (EMAs).
XRP is attempting to recover from $1.3189, but the 4-hour trend remains bearish, with EMA21 at $1.4153 and EMA55 at $1.4508 forming resistance alongside the $1.4458 bearish structure break. Source: TradingView
In that analysis, XRP was priced at approximately $1.4072, below the 21-period EMA at $1.4153 and the 55-period EMA at $1.4508. The latter also aligns with a bearish break-of-structure level near $1.4458, creating a resistance area that could limit recovery attempts.
The analyst identifies $1.4450–$1.4510 as a potential rejection zone. If XRP rallies into this range but fails to close above it on the four-hour chart, sellers could regain control and push the price toward lower support levels.
The downside reference points include $1.3812, followed by the recent swing low at $1.3189. A deeper decline could expose $1.2468, according to the same analysis.
Conversely, a decisive four-hour close above $1.4510 would weaken the immediate bearish setup by placing XRP back above the 55-period EMA and the identified resistance area. Such a move would not guarantee a rally, but it could provide an early sign that selling pressure is easing.
Descending Trendlines Offer a Potential Path Toward $2
Another four-hour chart shared by Isabelle (@Isabelle_Seven) highlights three descending resistance trendlines. According to the analysis, the previous two trendline encounters were followed by sharp upward moves after XRP found support along an ascending trendline.
The 4-hour XRP chart shows three descending resistance trendlines, with the previous two breakouts triggering sharp rallies after price found support along an ascending trendline. Source: @Isabelle_Seven via X
The chart identifies $1.30–$1.34 as a demand zone, where buying interest could help stabilize the price. This range overlaps with the recent swing low near $1.3189 and sits close to the support levels highlighted in the Elliott Wave analysis.
If buyers defend this zone and XRP breaks through the descending resistance structure, the next important test would be the $1.52–$1.56 range. A sustained move above that area could improve the technical outlook and open a potential path toward $2.
However, the previous trendline reactions do not establish that the third encounter will produce the same result. XRP would need to demonstrate renewed demand and overcome resistance rather than simply repeat an earlier chart pattern.
A breakdown below the demand zone would also undermine the bullish interpretation, particularly if the price falls beneath the $1.29 and $1.21 supports identified in the Elliott Wave outlook.
XRP Price Forecast 2026: What Could Confirm a Breakout?
The near-term XRP price forecast depends on whether the market can transition from a corrective structure into a sustained recovery. The supplied analyses identify several levels that could help traders assess that shift.
A move above $1.45 would be an initial improvement, particularly if XRP also reclaims the 55-period EMA. The next challenge would be the $1.52–$1.56 resistance zone. A confirmed break above that range would strengthen the case for a move toward $1.80 and potentially $2.
XRP appears to be forming a large triangle or a more complex pattern, with a pullback into the green order block potentially offering an entry opportunity for a move toward the chart’s upside targets. Source: behdark on TradingView
Beyond $2, the Elliott Wave projection identifies $2.40 and $3 as subsequent upside reference points. Reaching those levels would require additional confirmation from price action, as well as the ability to hold previously broken resistance levels during any pullbacks.
The bearish scenario remains relevant while XRP trades below the immediate resistance zone. Rejection near $1.45 could send the price back toward $1.38 or the $1.32 area. A break below those supports would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward $1.29 and $1.21.
These technical levels describe conditional scenarios rather than certainties. Elliott Wave counts can change as new price data emerges, while moving averages and trendlines can generate misleading signals during volatile market conditions.
Looking Ahead: Support and Resistance Remain Decisive
XRP’s technical outlook presents a clear divide between a possible recovery and continued downside pressure. The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that a corrective phase may be nearing completion, while the four-hour chart indicates that sellers still have an advantage below $1.45.
XRP price chart. Source: Brave New Coin
The $1.30–$1.34 demand zone remains important to the bullish case, with $1.38 providing a nearer support reference. On the upside, reclaiming $1.45 and clearing the $1.52–$1.56 resistance range would provide stronger evidence that momentum is shifting in buyers’ favor.
For now, the potential $2 breakout remains conditional on those technical developments. A move toward $3 is a longer-range projection that would require further confirmation, rather than an outcome established by the current chart structure.
Traders monitoring the XRP price should therefore watch how the market responds at these support and resistance levels instead of relying solely on projected Elliott Wave targets.
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