Standard Chartered Pushes Stablecoin Market Forecast of $2 Trillion to 2030

TLDR

• Standard Chartered now expects the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by 2030, two years later than first projected.
• Supply has stayed between $300 billion and $320 billion for 12 months and sits near $309 billion.
• Monthly transfer value averages just under $10 trillion this year, up from $4 trillion in 2025.
• USDC velocity rose to about 80 times, while Tether’s USDT stayed near seven times.
• Regulation is the main risk to the forecast, especially if other countries follow the US GENIUS Act.

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Standard Chartered has pushed back its forecast for the stablecoin market. The bank now expects the market to reach $2 trillion by 2030, two years later than it first projected.

Stablecoin supply has been stuck near $309bn for a year, but usage has grown.

On-chain transfer value is averaging nearly $10tn a month in 2026, up from $4tn in 2025. Velocity has doubled to 30x.

Standard Chartered still forecasts a $2tn stablecoin market, but now by 2030… pic.twitter.com/tPOtvDVJrE

— Frank Chaparro (@fintechfrank) October 14, 2026

The change comes after stablecoin supply stopped growing this year. Supply sits at about $309 billion and has stayed between $300 billion and $320 billion for the past 12 months.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, shared the view in a Wednesday report. He called the slowdown cyclical rather than structural, since it came during weak crypto market activity.

Kendrick said past periods of flat or falling supply were followed by renewed growth. Those gains came after crypto markets recovered.

Usage keeps rising as supply stalls

Even with flat supply, stablecoin use has kept growing. Monthly transfer value has averaged just under $10 trillion this year, up from $4 trillion in 2025.

Onchain transfer value hit a monthly record of $19 trillion in May. The bank says existing coins are changing hands more often.

Average monthly velocity has doubled to about 30 times from 15 times in 2025. Velocity measures how many times each dollar stablecoin changes hands.

Tether’s USDT velocity has stayed near seven times. Circle’s USDC rose to about 80 times from 45 times.

Kendrick said the gap comes from how each coin is used. USDT is mainly used for dollar savings in emerging markets.

USDC is used more for payments, financial transactions and early payments between AI agents. It also leads the small market for AI agent transactions.

Competition and rules in focus

Kendrick expects the most competition in developed market payments. Challengers include USDG, M^0 and A+, a planned network that would let banks issue a shared stablecoin.

Banks in that network would keep the income from the reserves. Kendrick said how issuers and networks split reserve yield could decide who gains market share.

He named regulation as a major risk to the forecast. Much depends on whether other countries adopt rules like the US GENIUS Act.

Kendrick said the main threat to Tether’s emerging market lead would be global regulators closely following that law.

In the US, the Treasury proposed rules in August limiting stablecoin issuance to federally or state-authorized issuers. Licensing requirements are expected to take effect in January 2027.

The FDIC has also proposed excluding stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance. The Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed an update in August that could change how firms report certain stablecoins.

The report was released on Oct. 14, 2026, with supply still near $309 billion.