Ethena (ENA) is up about 6% on Sunday, trading near $0.207 as it pushes back above its 50-day moving average and tests the top of a month-long falling channel.
The move comes four weeks into a correction that has left ENA roughly 30% below its late-September peak, according to Binance’s ENA/USDT daily chart on TradingView. Whether anything beyond the chart is backing the bounce is a separate question, and the answer is less encouraging.
What changed on Sunday?
ENA’s summer rally took it from a base near $0.07 to a peak near $0.295, more than quadrupling the token. The correction that followed stayed inside an orderly falling channel and bottomed near $0.18, at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of that move. Sunday stretched the bounce from that low to about 15%.
Two things gave way during the session. ENA climbed back above its 50-day SMA near $0.204 and pushed through the channel’s upper edge at the same time, then ran into the 0.382 Fib near $0.209, less than 1% overhead. With hours left in the session, the break is still intraday, so the daily close will decide whether it holds.
Is momentum on the buyers’ side?
For now, yes. RSI has crossed back above the 50 midpoint to about 50.5, clearing its signal line near 46. Volume has reached about 131.9 million ENA so far, with the candle still open.
Why hasn’t the buyback story kicked in?
Under Ethena’s fee switch, approved by governance in September, 95% of qualifying net protocol revenue goes to ENA buybacks, but only once the 14-day average supply of its USDe synthetic dollar reaches $7.5 billion. USDe stood near $4.76 billion in mid-October, according to DefiLlama data, about $2.7 billion short.
| USDe supply: ~$4.76B | Buyback trigger: $7.5B |
Until that gap closes, there is no protocol-funded buyer behind ENA, so Sunday’s move most likely rests on chart buyers alone.
What could get in the way?
The first obstacle is funding. USDe’s yield, and with it the demand that grows its supply, comes largely from funding payments on perpetual futures. Those payments shrink when leveraged longs are wiped out, and about $816 million in positions were liquidated across the market on Saturday, mostly longs, according to CoinGlass.
The second is token supply. A one-time release of all remaining investor tokens on October 5 ended the monthly investor schedule, and ENA has slid since then. Another 275 million ENA, worth about $57 million at today’s price, is set to unlock on November 1.
Put together, that is the bear case: one strong candle has not ended a month of lower highs, and both pressures arrive before any buyback support can.
Where does ENA meet support and resistance?
Above the 0.382 Fib, the next marker is the 0.236 Fib near $0.242, about 17% higher and the level where the October breakdown began. Clearing it would bring the late-September peak near $0.295 back into view, roughly 42% above current prices.
Below, the reclaimed 50-day SMA is the first line of defense, followed by the 0.5 Fib near $0.182, about 12% lower. A deeper slide would meet the 0.618 Fib near $0.156, where the 100-day SMA sits almost exactly on top, and then the 200-day SMA near $0.126. The base of the summer rally, near $0.07, lies about 66% below today’s price.
Three Ways the Week Could Play Out
Scenarios, not forecasts. ENA sits between the 0.382 Fib just overhead and the 50-day SMA just below.
| If ENA… | Then… |
|---|---|
| Closes above the 0.382 Fib this week and stays outside the channel | ↑ Room opens toward the 0.236 Fib |
| Closes back inside the channel and below the 50-day SMA before November 1 | ↓ The break looks false, and the 0.5 Fib comes back into play |
| Slides toward the 0.618 Fib and the 100-day SMA | → A deeper pullback, but the summer uptrend stays intact while that level holds |
In short
• ENA tests the 0.382 Fib near $0.209.
• USDe sits $2.7B short of buyback trigger.
• A 275M ENA unlock lands on November 1.
• RSI crosses back above its 50 midpoint.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.
Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem.
To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem.
His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
Be the first to comment