- Bitcoin price fell after reports of planned US strikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure.
- Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday.
- Polymarket gives just 1% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100K in April amid war-driven uncertainty.
Bitcoin dropped $1,100 in 30 minutes on Monday after reports emerged that the US military was actively planning strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. No stock market was open. No bond desk had time to react. But Bitcoin had already moved.
An analyst said that every technical setup, every support level, every chart pattern can be wiped out by a single speech or post from the President.
What Trump Actually Said
The statements coming out of Washington this week have been extraordinary even by recent standards.
President Trump said publicly that the United States could take out the entire country of Iran in a single night, and suggested that night might be Tuesday. He claimed Iranians were asking the US to keep bombing, saying people were willing to suffer in exchange for freedom. He also threatened to destroy every power plant in Iran if the regime did not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening at 8 PM Eastern.
Trump stated that he may delay that deadline again if he sees a deal coming together. It would be the fifth time he has extended an ultimatum since the conflict began. Negotiators, according to the Wall Street Journal, are pessimistic that Iran will comply before the deadline.
Why Analysis Has Become Almost Impossible
The usual tools of market analysis are struggling to keep up with a news cycle measured in minutes.
Bitcoin is trading around $68,000 at press time, down from a brief push toward $70,000 that was met with immediate profit-taking. Glassnode data showed that every approach to the $70,000 to $80,000 range since February 2026 has encountered thin liquidity and distribution by large holders, with realized profit per hour spiking above $20 million each time the price touched that zone.
Polymarket bettors are pricing in just a 1% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in April, while assigning a 6% probability to a drop below $50,000.
Next, the immediate focus is whether Bitcoin can hold $68,000. A reclaim of $70,000 with volume behind it would be the first bullish sign that the fear trade is unwinding. Both outcomes depend less on charts right now and more on what happens in the Middle East before Tuesday night.
Related: Polymarket Becomes War Betting Hub, Lawmakers Demand Crackdown
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