Peru election hinges on 5,000 actas as López Aliaga’s runoff hopes fade

With 515 actas still pending, over 5,000 observed actas will determine whether Roberto Sánchez or Rafael López Aliaga advances to Peru’s presidential runoff. The market for López Aliaga winning the presidency sits at 9.5% YES, with traders reevaluating positions as uncertainty around the contested ballots grows.

Market reaction

Odds for López Aliaga’s advance are likely to fall as the pending actas remain unresolved. The gap between him and Sánchez is thin, and the resolution of these actas could swing the outcome either way. Allegations of fraud and requests for annulments complicate the process further, making traders cautious about holding long positions.

Why it matters

López Aliaga’s path to the runoff depends almost entirely on how these observed and pending actas are counted. Missing or contested actas could shift the balance toward Sánchez. At 14.5% YES, a López Aliaga presidential victory would pay $1 for each 14.5¢ share, a potential 6.9x return. But that price reflects real risk that he may not even make the runoff.

What to watch

Statements from the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones and the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales are the next catalysts. Any ruling on the actas’ status or legitimacy, particularly decisions on annulment requests, could move the market sharply in either direction.

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