López Aliaga falls behind in Peru recount, likely out of 2026 presidential race

Rafael López Aliaga remains behind in the Peruvian vote recount, with López Chau surpassing him in a key table in Huancayo. The odds of López Aliaga winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 5.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday and 30% a week ago.

The recount has effectively ended López Aliaga’s chances of advancing to the second round. The market for his victory reflects this, with no significant trades altering the odds since a minor 1-point spike at 11:46 PM. Daily volume is $9,451 in actual USDC against a $128,147 face value.

The recount results point to López Aliaga’s elimination from the runoff, removing his geopolitical influence from the equation. His right-wing alignment and pro-Western investment positions will not shape Peru’s next government. With actual USDC traded well below face value and $14,001 needed to move the price 5 points, liquidity is thin, and even small trades can shift the market.

For traders, a YES share at 3.8¢ pays $1 if López Aliaga wins, a 16.67x return. Given current recount trends, that bet is highly speculative. The collapse from 30% a week ago to 5.5% today captures how sharply the market has repriced his chances.

Watch for updates from Peru’s Special Electoral Juries and any JNE announcements on recount outcomes that could move the odds further. These results will determine the final runoff lineup.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.