Strait of Hormuz closure poses largest energy security threat: IEA

The Strait of Hormuz closure amid the Iran war has led to what the IEA calls the largest energy security threat in history. On Polymarket, WTI Crude Oil to hit $160 in April sits at 1% YES, unchanged this week.

Market reaction

Traders remain skeptical that WTI Crude will reach historic highs despite the severe supply disruption. The WTI Crude Oil Prices in April 2026 market holds at 1% YES. The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market is at 3.6% YES, up from 3% twenty-four hours ago. Daily volume on the all-time high market is $72,279 face value and $2,006 in actual USDC traded. It takes $1,020 to move the market 5 percentage points. The largest move in the past day was a 0.6% increase.

Why it matters

The closure removes 13 million barrels per day from global supply, a scale that surpasses past oil crises. Yet traders are pricing the $160 scenario at just 1%. A YES share at 1¢ pays $1 if April closes at $160, a 100x return. The gap between the severity of the disruption and the low odds reflects trader expectations that either rapid de-escalation or increased OPEC+ production will prevent prices from reaching that level.

What to watch

US-Iran diplomatic developments and OPEC+ production announcements are the two variables most likely to move these markets. Any progress toward reopening the Strait or a coordinated output increase could collapse the already-low odds further, while escalation could push them sharply higher.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.