Trump open to talks with Iran’s new leaders, no ceasefire commitment yet

Trump said he is ready to negotiate with Iran’s new leadership but made no commitment to extending the ceasefire. The permanent peace deal by April 30 contract trades at 3% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Trump’s comments moved markets across several timelines. The short-term April 30 contract is at 3%, showing skepticism about a quick resolution. The May 31 contract is at 29% YES, meaning traders see more room for progress over the next month. The June 30 market is the most bullish at 42% YES.

The market for a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 hasn’t moved much, holding at 1% YES. Thin liquidity here means any surprise meeting announcement could swing odds sharply on minimal volume.

Total volume across the peace deal markets is $854,504 in USDC. The order book shows it takes $27,666 to move the April 30 odds by 5 points. A 6-point spike at 11:14 AM was likely a single large order. Traders are not committing size without concrete actions from either side.

Trump’s willingness to talk is notable, but the absence of a ceasefire commitment limits upside expectations. At 3¢, a YES share for an April 30 peace deal pays $1, a 33.33x return. That bet requires a last-minute breakthrough, which looks unlikely given the current diplomatic stalemate.

Watch Trump’s upcoming public appearances and statements from the Iranian leadership council. A named mediator or formal meeting announcement would be the clearest signals of real movement.

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