Japan reroutes oil supply to bypass Strait of Hormuz amid Iranian disruptions

Japan is rerouting oil procurement to bypass the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian disruptions, and the Crude Oil Predictions for June market on Polymarket now sits at 67% YES for crude hitting $90 by month’s end.

Market reaction

The Crude Oil Predictions for June market shows a 15% increase in odds, driven by supply constraints from the rerouting. The WTI Crude Oil Price Predictions for April 2026 market has seen a smaller but noticeable uptick, with odds expected to rise about 10% as Japan diversifies suppliers. The primary focus remains on June’s term structure rather than the longer-dated April 2026 contract.

Why it matters

Japan bypassing the Strait of Hormuz signals real vulnerability in one of the world’s most trafficked oil chokepoints. At 67% YES, traders are pricing in a meaningful probability that these supply disruptions push crude to $90. There have been no recent trades in the June market, so the current odds reflect geopolitical positioning rather than active trading flow. Face value of trades doesn’t necessarily capture underlying sentiment, which makes the thin order book worth noting.

What to watch

A YES share priced at 67¢ pays $1 if crude hits $90 by end of June, a 1.49x return. The bet depends on whether disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz persist or escalate. Statements or output decisions from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz and Russia’s Alexander Novak could move these odds quickly in either direction.

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