US oil prices surge past $96 as US-Iran peace talks collapse

US oil prices have climbed above $96 per barrel after the cancellation of US-Iran peace talks, pushing the Polymarket contract on WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April to 0.5% YES.

The stalled negotiations have left traders bracing for continued supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows. A closure or blockade there would directly constrain supply. Even at 0.5% odds for WTI reaching $160, the market’s price action reflects heightened sensitivity to each development in the US-Iran standoff.

With only six days left on the April market, the window for a spike to $160 is narrow. Liquidity is thin: just $506 in USDC traded daily, and only $1,632 needed to shift prices by 5 percentage points. A single moderately sized order could move the contract significantly.

The lack of diplomatic progress suggests elevated oil prices may persist. Even if fighting ceases, rebuilding inventories takes time, which would keep prices high through the summer. A YES position at 0.5¢ pays $1 if WTI hits $160 by the end of April, a 200x return. For that to happen, further escalation or major supply disruptions would need to occur within days.

Watch for OPEC+ announcements on production levels and any operational changes at the Strait of Hormuz. Either could move this contract quickly.

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