Iran proposes plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz, ending naval blockade

Iran has proposed a new plan to prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending its naval blockade. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 16% YES, up from 15.5% earlier.

Iran’s offer has nudged odds upward, with traders pricing in some probability of de-escalation. The May 15 market has $36,459 in actual USDC exchanged daily. The largest move was a 2-point spike at 3:48 PM. Still, 16% reflects caution; de-escalation steps often unravel or stall.

A separate market on whether 80 ships will transit the Strait by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 4% yesterday. With only six days left, traders see little chance of reaching that threshold given the logistics of unblocking the strait and coordinating maritime operations.

The face value for these markets can be misleading. What matters is real dollars traded. With just $449 in actual USDC changing hands in the ships transit market, it takes only $542 to move the odds 5 points. A single large bet could skew this thinly traded market.

Iran’s revised plan is a positive signal, but its impact depends on how the US and regional allies respond. The move could open the door to broader negotiations, or it could be a tactical gambit to relieve pressure without conceding on nuclear demands. At 16%, a YES share pays $1 if traffic normalizes by May 15, offering a 6.25x return for those betting on rapid de-escalation.

Watch for public statements from CENTCOM, announcements by shipping operators, and updates from the Hormuz Strait Monitor. These will determine whether the reopening plans are real or just diplomatic noise.

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