Iran blockade strands 20,000 seafarers, 2,000 ships in Strait of Hormuz

The International Maritime Organization reports that 20,000 seafarers and 2,000 ships are stranded due to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30 is at 1% YES.

The market for UK warships entering the Strait of Hormuz sits at 1%, down from 12% a week ago. The contract trades at $11,246/day face value, but actual USDC volume is just $233. A $783 order could shift the odds by five percentage points, making this an extremely thin book.

The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is more active. It’s priced at 17.5% YES, with 21 days left until the May 15 deadline. Traders appear to expect prolonged disruption, with volume at $36,459 in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours.

A continued blockade raises the likelihood of international military intervention. The current odds imply low confidence in immediate UK naval action, but an escalation could change that quickly. Buying YES at 1¢ offers a potential 100x return if warships are deployed by April 30.

Watch for announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence or allied naval movements. A statement from CENTCOM or an unexpected shift in Iranian policy could quickly alter these odds.

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