The biggest options expiry of the cycle has just cleared, and Bitcoin barely flinched. Roughly $15.9 billion in BTC options expired on Deribit this morning, covering 184,000 contracts. Add $2.13 billion in Ethereum options, and the combined total reaches about $16.53 billion. AI Predicts that BTC now enters a cleaner tape, with the positioning that anchored price for weeks finally out of the way.
Bitcoin is trading near $84,590, up 1.41% over 24 hours. Volume has cooled to $34.31 billion, down 27.13%, which is typical once an expiry passes and traders step back.
🚨 Nearly $16 BILLION in #Bitcoin options notional expired this morning.
Why does that matter?
Large options expiries can influence short term price action as dealers adjust their hedges around heavily concentrated strike prices.
That can contribute to:
– Price gravitating…
— Nebraskangooner (@Nebraskangooner) September 25, 2026
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Why Did Max Pain Sit So Far Below the Price?
Max pain for this expiry sat between $75,000 and $78,000. Bitcoin spent the week trading well above it. Max pain is the level where the largest number of contracts expire worthless. It is where option sellers, usually large desks, keep the most premium.
The gap matters because it shows how badly positioning was caught. Bitcoin dropped to $75,000 last week, then rallied back above $87,000 within days. Contracts written for a quiet expiry near $76,000 ended up deep in the money.
This Friday 8 AM UTC, 184K $BTC are set to expire on Deribit with a notional value of $15.90 billion.
Max pain price $75,000, put/call ratio: 0.69 pic.twitter.com/HdgOUbG32T
— unfolded. (@cryptounfolded) September 23, 2026
The put-to-call ratio ranged between 0.69 and 0.84. More calls than puts, meaning traders leaned bullish into the date.
That combination is worth noting. Bullish positioning plus a max pain level far below spot usually means sellers were defending, not driving.
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What Happens to Bitcoin Once the Pressure Lifts?
Expiry days tend to pin the price. Desks hedging large books buy and sell spot to stay neutral, which dampens movement in both directions. Once those contracts settle, the hedging unwinds. Price is freer to move with actual demand.
That demand still looks present. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs took in $190.7 million on September 24, led by BlackRock’s IBIT at $162.6 million. It follows $346.9 million the day before and $714.7 million on September 22.
Total net assets across these funds now stand at $111.28 billion, with $57.87 billion in cumulative inflows since launch.
There is also a forward signal in the options themselves. Traders built sizeable butterfly structures targeting $95,000 by October 30. Deribit’s CEO noted open interest above $50 billion, with roughly a third clearing in this cycle.
Those are positions for a higher Bitcoin, placed with weeks left to run.
AI Predicts BTC Levels: Where Does Price Go From Here?
BTCUSDT Price Chart 1D
The chart is in better shape than the sideways price action suggests. Bitcoin holds above $82,303, the level that rejected it in both May and September, and the 50-day EMA at $76,476 has crossed above the 200-day EMA at $73,970.
AI Predicts BTC will be shaped by these levels:
- The floor to defend: $82,300. Former resistance should now hold as support. Daily closes above it keep the structure intact.
- The next test: $88,000 to $90,000. The nearest supply band, and the gateway to the $95,000 target options traders are positioned for.
- The bigger objective: $98,330. The final barrier before $100,000, realistically a year-end level. Below the breakout, $73,836 and the 200-day EMA form a well-defined backstop. That zone has held through every pullback since August.
The risk is that expiry removes a floor as well as a ceiling. Desks that were buying dips to stay hedged no longer need to, and thin post-expiry liquidity can exaggerate moves in either direction.
Watch the first few daily closes. If Bitcoin holds $82,300 while ETF inflows continue, the $88,000 to $90,000 band becomes the next real fight.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and deep-dive guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council, and is dedicated to providing “information gain” that cuts through market hype to find real-world blockchain utility.
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