TLDR
- Airbus stock jumped around 7% after announcing a €5 billion share buyback over three years
- The company set a 2029 adjusted EBIT target of €12–€13 billion, up from €7.13 billion last year
- The buyback represents about 1% of market cap per year, or 25% of cumulative free cash flow (2026–28)
- Morgan Stanley called the update “more bullish than expected” and rates the stock “overweight” with a €227 price target
- Airbus plans to return 60% of cumulative free cash flow to shareholders over the next three years
Airbus stock was trading around 7% higher on Wednesday after the planemaker held a Business Update in London, unveiling a major buyback programme and new long-term profit targets.
The European aerospace group announced a €5 billion share buyback to be carried out over three years, subject to ongoing shareholder approval. It was the biggest single item to catch Wall Street’s attention.
Morgan Stanley, which rates Airbus “overweight” with a €227 price target, described the update as “a more bullish update than expected.” The bank called the buyback “the biggest surprise” of the presentation.
The buyback represents roughly 1% of market capitalisation per year and around 25% of cumulative free cash flow consensus across 2026 to 2028, according to Morgan Stanley estimates.
JP Morgan said Airbus “delivered on all the things we felt were needed for the shares to rally.”
New 2029 Profit Targets
Airbus set a 2029 adjusted EBIT target of €12 billion to €13 billion. That compares to €7.13 billion in adjusted EBIT last year and a 2026 target of €7.5 billion — nearly doubling profits within four years.
The targets assume a euro/dollar exchange rate of 1.22 and no additional disruptions to trade, air traffic, or the supply chain. They also assume tariffs remain at current levels.
The company breaks down its 2029 EBIT guidance across its divisions. Commercial Aircraft is expected to contribute around €10 billion. Defence & Space adds €1.3 billion and Helicopters accounts for €1.2 billion.
Airbus also reiterated a cash conversion target of around 1 over a five-year horizon.
Deliveries Picking Up
Airbus started 2026 slowly, hit by supply-chain and engine bottlenecks. But the company has since accelerated, with first-half deliveries up 15% year-on-year.
CEO Guillaume Faury said the company is ramping up across all businesses to meet strong demand for its civil and military portfolio.
One detail that caught Morgan Stanley’s eye: the presentation referenced an A320 production rate of 70 to 75 per month in 2027, without repeating the previous communication of 75 per month beyond that date.
The company confirmed 2026 guidance remains unchanged.
Airbus said its outlook does not factor in any potential mergers or acquisitions.
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