Altcoins are advancing across several sectors while their share of futures positioning remains below levels linked to earlier overheated markets. The move is broad, but the longer 90-day test for an altcoin season has not been met.
The market is showing wider participation without the derivatives concentration seen near previous altcoin peaks. That leaves room for positioning to grow, but it does not guarantee that prices will follow.
Glassnode is not saying altcoin leverage is low
A Glassnode chart published on September 18 compares altcoins’ share of futures open interest with Bitcoin’s share. It is a measure of where derivatives positions are concentrated, not the amount of leverage used by individual traders.
The orange line represents the percentage-point difference between the two shares. A deeply negative reading means Bitcoin still accounts for considerably more open interest. When the line moves closer to zero, altcoins are claiming more of the futures market.
Glassnode marks its risk threshold at approximately five percentage points below parity. The latest point on the chart appears closer to 12 points below Bitcoin’s share, leaving altcoin positioning short of the zone associated with several previous periods of market stress.
That reading cannot be treated as a safety signal. Individual tokens may already carry crowded positions even when the combined altcoin market remains below the threshold. It also says nothing about whether new futures positions are long or short, or whether spot buyers are entering alongside derivatives traders.
The chart makes a narrower point: altcoins have not yet captured enough of the tracked open-interest market to recreate this particular historical warning. The gap could continue narrowing, remain where it is or widen again if traders return to Bitcoin.
A reading of 45 is not an altcoin season
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index stood at 45 when checked on September 19. The figure is based on how many eligible cryptocurrencies among the top 100 have outperformed Bitcoin over the previous 90 days.
CoinMarketCap excludes stablecoins such as USDT and DAI, along with asset-backed tokens including WBTC and stETH. A reading of 45 therefore means 45% of the eligible group beat Bitcoin during the measured period. The platform requires that share to reach 75% before classifying the market as being in altcoin season.
The 90-day window prevents several strong sessions from immediately changing the label. It also explains why the index can remain below 50 while a large number of altcoins are rising on the day. One measures recent market breadth; the other asks whether the advantage over Bitcoin has lasted for three months.
The latest advance is wider than the 90-day score
Our review of the September 18 altcoin-led rally found that 31 of 45 eligible assets among the largest 60 cryptocurrencies had gained more than 5% over 24 hours. Fourteen recorded double-digit increases.
The leaders covered decentralized finance, Ethereum scaling networks, layer-one blockchains, privacy coins, meme tokens and real-world-asset projects. Such participation is harder to explain through one project announcement or a short-lived move in a single sector.
It remains a daily snapshot. To lift the CMC index toward 75, many of those assets would have to retain their advantage over Bitcoin rather than surrender it during the next correction.
Uniswap shows what the aggregate indicator can miss
A market-wide measure can remain below its warning line while speculation builds rapidly in one token. Our Uniswap analysis published on September 18 recorded a 27% daily gain as tracked futures turnover reached more than five times spot volume. Short positions also accounted for most of the reported liquidations.
Those figures belonged to the September 18 snapshot and should not be read as live September 19 data. They nevertheless illustrate the limitation of an aggregate indicator: UNI could attract aggressive derivatives trading before altcoins collectively approached Glassnode’s threshold.
Short liquidations may accelerate a breakout because traders are forced to buy back positions as price rises. Once that pressure fades, the market needs ordinary buyers to absorb profit-taking. A token can therefore look strongest at the moment when its short-term positioning becomes most fragile.
What would support, or weaken, the rally
Evidence of a more durable advance
- More altcoins continue beating Bitcoin over the 90-day window.
- The CMC index moves steadily toward 75.
- Spot-market activity keeps pace with futures growth.
- Recent leaders hold above their former ranges during a pullback.
Signs that derivatives are outrunning demand
- Open interest rises while spot participation fades.
- The strongest tokens quickly surrender their breakouts.
- Liquidations account for much of the upward momentum.
- The Glassnode gap approaches its risk line without lasting price support.
The next pullback will provide the cleaner test
Another day of large gains would increase the headline numbers without answering whether buyers will defend higher prices. A pullback would show whether capital remains committed after short covering slows and the easiest momentum trades disappear.
If former resistance holds across several leading sectors, today’s wide participation could begin feeding into the longer 90-day measure. If those assets fall back into their previous ranges while futures positions remain elevated, the market may discover that unused leverage capacity was not the same thing as durable demand.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices, derivatives positioning and market indicators can change rapidly.
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.
Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem.
To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem.
His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
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