TL;DR:
- Bitcoin has historically entered bearish phases approximately one year prior to each US legislative election.
- A Binance Research report notes that the asset dropped an average of 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014.
- Previous presidential elections showed a different behavior, with sharp rallies following candidates’ victories.
Joao Wedson recently published an analysis asserting that the 2026 US midterm elections could mark the beginning of a Bitcoin price breakout. His analysis links market cycles to the US political calendar after recording repetitive patterns in previous periods.
Bitcoin vs. U.S. Midterm Elections🇺🇸
Bitcoin entered a bear market roughly one year before every U.S. midterm election.
After the midterms, Bitcoin began a prolonged bull market.
Every time a president won the election, Bitcoin rallied strongly. However, shortly after the… pic.twitter.com/cbxNfwInum
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) July 29, 2026
Historical patterns in the US electoral calendar
The correlation between cryptocurrency performance and political events shows that the asset tends to adjust its price before legislative votes. According to research shared by the Alphractal founder in a post on X, Bitcoin typically enters a bear cycle one year before midterm elections, only to begin a prolonged upward phase once the election process concludes.
In certain historical cycles, the price bottom consolidated days before the vote, while in other cases it was recorded shortly after election day.
On the other hand, presidential elections showed a different dynamic. The analyzed documentation points out that the asset has recorded marked increases following the confirmation of an election winner, approaching a cycle peak shortly after the presidential inauguration.
As an example of this trend, the analyst cited XRP’s behavior. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election, the token began an uptrend that culminated in a local peak on January 20, 2025, the date of the presidential inauguration.
The data presented aligns with Binance Research findings published earlier this year. According to the firm’s report, Bitcoin experienced pricing difficulties during midterm election years, only to regain ground once political uncertainty faded.
The Binance Research report details that the asset dropped an average close to 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014. In contrast, during the year following those elections, the market recorded an average return of approximately 54%.
Despite these historical comparisons, the analysis warns about the need to exercise caution when interpreting recent market readings. Wedson’s previous observations indicate that an isolated price rally does not, on its own, guarantee a structural shift in the trend.
To confirm a cycle transition toward a bullish phase, the source points out that clear signals of capitulation, operational deleveraging, and the influx of new capital from short-term investors are required.
Macroeconomic factors and current market scenario
The macroeconomic context and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy continue to exert influence over the digital market’s evolution. Three months out from the elections, Bitcoin’s price is hovering near $64,000. That amount represents a distance of nearly 50% from $126,000, the asset’s all-time high recorded in October 2025.
CoinGecko data indicates that over the last 7 days, the pioneer cryptocurrency experienced a pullback of around 2.5%. However, the asset maintains a cumulative gain of nearly 8% over the past month.
This behavior occurs in an environment where the US Federal Reserve decided to hold the benchmark interest rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Global liquidity conditions and the performance of economic indicators in the months leading up to the vote will be decisive in validating whether history repeats itself.
The next milestone for verifying these metrics will be the occurrence of the legislative elections in November 2026, at which point the market will observe whether the trend reversal projected by analysts consolidates.
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