TL;DR:
- Bitcoin’s price dropped to a monthly low of $74,000 on Saturday morning due to geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
- Nearly 18,000 BTC entered exchanges last week, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of 16,000 BTC.
- The cryptocurrency’s current price remains approximately 38% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025.
On Monday, the price of Bitcoin rallied toward the $77,500 zone, driven by renewed optimism in international markets amid an imminent de-escalation of political tensions between the United States and Iran.
Last Saturday morning, the pioneer crypto dropped, hitting a floor of $74,000, which stood as its lowest point so far in May. This technical correction occurred following a series of statements from the President of the United States directed at the Iranian government, triggering a temporary pullback in risk assets.
However, a trend reversal took place after the announcement of progress toward a permanent peace deal. This shift in the macroeconomic landscape allowed the asset to regain ground, reaching $77,200 before encountering resistance and subsequently stabilizing at current levels.
Divergence between technical analysis and on-chain data
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out through his official channels that a peace agreement in the Middle East could act as the macroeconomic catalyst that the cryptocurrency market needs. According to his projections, declining oil prices and bond yields could favor equity assets, allowing the leading cryptocurrency to break above the $80,000 resistance again over the coming months.
I think #Bitcoin is ready for higher grounds.
If there’s going to be a peace deal in the coming days in the Middle East;
– Oil goes down.
– Yields go down.
– Risk on assets will do well.
– #Bitcoin breaks above $80k+ again.
– #Altcoins will have their time for the entire… pic.twitter.com/HspLd5MckR— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 25, 2026
While optimism is evident across much of the market, other market observers urge caution before confirming a definitive trend reversal. Data from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. revealed that approximately 18,000 BTC flowed into exchanges last week. In contrast, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US market experienced net outflows of roughly 16,000 BTC during the same period. This lack of absorption by institutional demand could add further short-term selling pressure on the price.
On the other hand, trader Sykodelic indicated that the asset managed to close the week above its 50 and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA). However, he warned that the formal announcement of a peace deal this week could trigger an initial correction toward $74,000 to test existing liquidity before starting a sustained upward move leading into June.
The market’s current behavior reflects a key resistance at the 200-day moving average, located in the low $80,000 zone. According to technical assessments, the asset needs to consolidate this level as a higher low to invalidate the bearish sequence that has prevailed since late last year.
The derivatives market and major trading platforms are closely watching the area between $82,000 and $83,000, identified by traders as a dense liquidity cluster. The evolution of bilateral diplomatic talks over the coming days will determine whether the fintech sector consolidates this rebound or if corrective pressure resumes.
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