An XRP-focused market analyst opened the week with a blunt assessment: despite a brief bounce, XRP’s technical and macro backdrop remains tilted to the downside, with a move below $1 still seen as the most likely medium-term outcome.
Cilinix, who regularly dissects XRP price action and fundamentals, said the token’s recent uptick “is decent to see” but “not much,” stressing that the market has failed to reclaim key short-term levels that would signal a stronger recovery.
Key Levels Capped, Order Flow Turns Less Constructive
Cilinix highlighted $1.28 as the “critical level to the upside.” As long as XRP trades below that area, they “cannot claim that structurally we’re bullish.” Even on lower timeframes, the inability to reclaim the seven-day rolling VWAP stands out.
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Technically, reclaiming that VWAP “usually indicates that we have found some sort of a local bottom,” they noted. The fact that XRP has not done so reinforces the view that “the structure is not bullish.”
On-chain and derivatives data have also shifted. Over the weekend, XRP showed “very bullish order flow,” with absorption and negative funding rates suggesting aggressive short positioning.
By Monday, that picture had softened: funding rates had turned positive again, and while cumulative volume delta (CVD) still shows some passive buying — price making higher highs as CVD makes lower highs — the analyst no longer sees order flow as “so oversold” or “so… bullish” that a sharp upside move is warranted.
“Structure is bearish, order flow is bearish on XRP,” they summarized.
Middle East Escalation, Volatility Risk and Sub-$1 Target
Beyond XRP-specific metrics, the analyst pointed to broader market stress. Fresh escalations in the Middle East have weighed on global financial markets since Friday, and they cautioned that equity markets may only “really price in” the weekend’s developments after the New York open.
With the volatility index “quite elevated”, this backdrop is “especially bad for risky assets such as crypto.”
While a short-term push higher remains possible — there are “quite a lot of imbalances and inefficiencies” above current price, including last week’s VWAP around $1.17, the prior weekly value area high near $1.23, and a single print around $1.25 — the analyst expects those zones to act as areas for rejection rather than launchpads for a sustained rally.
“Ultimately I think it’s a matter of time before we will reject and at least test the lows,” they said, adding, “I would still say it’s most likely medium term we’re going to drop down below a dollar.”
On a longer horizon, Cilinix remains constructive on Ripple-related fundamentals, citing previous discussions of the Clarity Act, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin and recent acquisitions.
But in the current environment of heightened geopolitical risk and fragile order flow, that long-term optimism does little to offset the near-term bearish setup.
In the near time, XRP may enjoy brief relief rallies into overhead gaps and weak highs, but without a reclaim of $1.28 and the seven-day VWAP — and with macro volatility still rising — downside risk toward and below $1 remains firmly on the table.
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Key resistance sits at $1.17, $1.23, $1.25 and, most importantly, $1.28. The analyst expects any medium-term recovery to require a decisive break above $1.28.
There is still some passive buying visible in CVD versus price, and short-term pushes higher into overhead inefficiencies are possible, but not enough to flip the broader trend bullish.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East and an elevated volatility index are seen as negative for risk assets, adding pressure to an already weak XRP structure.
Not entirely – Cilinix also notes positive long-term fundamentals around Ripple’s regulatory positioning, RLUSD stablecoin and acquisitions, but views these as overshadowed by current technical and macro headwinds.
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