Tony Kim
May 18, 2026 07:51
APT’s collapse below all major moving averages points to $0.85 support being tested within 7-10 days, with bears maintaining control as momentum indicators signal continued weakness ahead.
The Immediate Setup
Aptos faces mounting pressure at $0.92 following a sharp 4% daily decline that pushed the token dangerously close to its lower Bollinger Band at $0.89. The RSI reading of 39.42 shows sellers firmly in control without reaching oversold extremes, while the MACD histogram sits flat at zero, indicating complete momentum exhaustion.
The moving average structure paints a bearish picture across all timeframes. APT trades beneath the 7-day SMA at $0.99 and 20-day at $1.02, with both levels now acting as resistance barriers. The 200-day SMA at $1.47 serves as a reminder of the token’s substantial decline from previous highs.
Critical Support and Resistance Zones
Strong resistance has formed at the psychological $1.00 level, where both EMAs converge to create a formidable ceiling for any recovery attempts. This convergence makes $1.00 the key level bulls must reclaim to shift the technical narrative.
Immediate support sits at $0.89, aligning with the lower Bollinger Band where temporary relief might emerge. However, the crucial test awaits at $0.85 strong support, where a breakdown would likely trigger algorithmic selling and accelerate the decline. The %B indicator at 0.11 confirms APT’s position near the lower band, typically preceding either a sharp bounce or support breakdown.
Market Dynamics and Positioning
Derivatives data reveals the underlying market structure that Blockchain.news analysts are monitoring closely. The funding rate remains slightly negative at -0.0022%, showing minimal short bias, while open interest dropped 5.12% as positions face liquidation pressure.
The buy/sell ratio of 0.58 indicates aggressive selling pressure overwhelming buyers, forcing market makers to absorb heavy volume. Despite this, top traders maintain a 56% long bias versus 44% short positioning, suggesting either contrarian positioning for a bounce or trapped longs awaiting relief.
Strategic Trading Framework
The technical setup favors defensive positioning over aggressive entries. Bears can target the $0.94-$0.95 range on any relief bounce, aiming for the $0.85 support break with stops above $1.00. This approach offers approximately 2:1 risk-reward with clear invalidation parameters.
Bulls should exercise patience, waiting for either a decisive break above $1.00 with supporting volume or successful defense of $0.85 support. Current momentum and volume analysis suggests a 75% probability of testing $0.85 within the next 7-10 sessions, making this the primary scenario Blockchain.news traders should prepare for.
Should $0.85 support fail, the next meaningful support zone appears around $0.70-$0.75, representing another 15-20% downside potential. Conversely, any bounce from current levels would target $1.00 resistance, though this remains the lower probability outcome given the deteriorating technical structure.
The bear case becomes invalid on a daily close above $1.02, which would suggest selling pressure has been absorbed and open the door for a relief rally toward $1.15. Until that occurs, the path of least resistance points decidedly lower.
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