ASML Stock: No Holds, No Sells — Just Eight Buy Ratings After a Blowout Quarter

TLDR

• ASML raised its 2026 sales outlook to €43–€45 billion, up from €36–€40 billion in April
• Q2 net sales hit €9.3 billion with a gross margin of 54%, both above guidance
• EPS came in at $8.68 per ADR, roughly 9.6% above the $7.92 analyst estimate
• ASML plans to expand Low-NA EUV capacity by 30% in 2027 and is studying another 30% increase for 2028
• Wall Street holds a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $2,421, implying ~38.5% upside

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ASML reported second-quarter results on July 15 that came in well above its own targets, then raised its full-year outlook for the second time in 2026.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

Net sales reached €9.326 billion, up 21.2% from €7.692 billion a year ago. That cleared both management’s €8.4–€9.0 billion guidance range and the €8.80 billion analyst consensus.

Net income came in at €2.918 billion. On the U.S. listing, EPS was $8.68 per ADR, about 9.6% ahead of the $7.92 estimate. The stock is up around 69% year-to-date and roughly 145% over the past 12 months, trading near $1,748.

The biggest surprise came from the Installed Base Management segment — service work and upgrades on machines already in customer fabs. That division posted €2.762 billion in sales, nearly €300 million above guidance. The richer service mix also pushed gross margin to 54%, above the guided 51%–52%.

On the systems side, net sales were €6.6 billion, split between €3.8 billion from EUV tools and €2.8 billion from non-EUV. Logic made up 51% of the mix and Memory 49%. ASML also recorded revenue from one High-NA EUV system during the quarter.

Outlook Gets a Major Upgrade

ASML lifted its 2026 full-year sales guidance to €43–€45 billion with a gross margin range of 54%–56%. That compares to the previous guidance of €36–€40 billion and a 51%–53% margin. At the midpoint, that implies roughly 35% growth over last year’s €32.7 billion.

For Q3, the company guided for €11–€12 billion in sales and a 55%–57% margin. Against the €9.3 billion just reported, the midpoint implies more than 20% sequential revenue growth.

CEO Christophe Fouquet said order intake remained “extremely strong” in the first half, with customers accelerating capacity plans driven by AI demand for advanced logic and memory chips.

Capacity Expansion Is the Real Story

ASML plans to expand its Low-NA EUV manufacturing capacity from around 65 systems in 2026 to roughly 78–80 systems in 2027 — a 30% increase. That expanded capacity is already close to fully covered by orders. Demand for 2028 is also building, prompting the company to investigate another 30% expansion.

Deep ultraviolet immersion capacity, currently around 130 systems per year, is being prepared for the same increases in 2027 and potentially 2028.

In Memory specifically, ASML now expects net system sales to rise more than 75% this year as DRAM makers build out high-bandwidth memory and advanced DDR capacity.

Intel’s use of High-NA EUV on selected 18A Panther Lake chip layers marks ASML’s next-generation platform moving into production.

ASML currently trades at around 40x this year’s consensus EPS estimate of $43.34, which itself implies roughly 49% earnings growth from 2025. Wall Street’s average price target sits at $2,421.36, based on eight unanimous Buy ratings with no Hold or Sell calls.