TLDR
- Binance US has reportedly applied for CFTC approval to enter the US prediction market sector.
- Blockchain.com seeks two CFTC licenses covering regulated derivatives trading and brokerage services.
- Kalshi and Polymarket trading volumes reportedly climbed from $17 billion in January to $72 billion in September.
- Regulatory disputes continue as several US states challenge sports-related prediction contracts.
Binance US and Blockchain.com are seeking US regulatory approval to offer prediction markets as cryptocurrency exchanges expand beyond traditional token trading. The Financial Times reported the applications on October 21, amid rising demand for contracts tied to real-world events.
Binance US Seeks Wider Market Access
Binance US has applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to enter the prediction market business, according to the report. Its proposed services would allow customers to trade contracts linked to events, alongside futures and options.
Chief executive Stephen Gregory outlined plans for a regulated exchange license in July. The company is also seeking up to $100 million in financing at a valuation near $1 billion as it works to expand its US operations.
The proposal arrives amid questions over who regulates event contracts. Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour recently warned that state legal challenges could drive prediction markets offshore.
Blockchain.com Seeks Two CFTC Licenses
Blockchain.com confirmed on October 13 that it requested two approvals. A designated contract market license would let it operate a regulated exchange. Registration as a futures commission merchant would allow it to broker derivatives trades.
If regulators approve the applications, the company could offer US retail and institutional customers futures, options and contracts on sports, politics and economic results. It already provides prediction products and perpetual futures in eligible overseas markets.
Blockchain.com wants customers to use one platform for different products, chief executive Peter Smith said. Separately, StarkWare launched a privacy tool for Polymarket trades on October 14, although US traders remain excluded.
Fast Growth Brings Regulatory Challenges
Combined trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $72 billion in September, compared with $17 billion in January, the Financial Times reported. Coinbase, Crypto.com and Gemini are pursuing similar opportunities as exchanges seek revenue beyond cryptocurrency trading.
Federal and state authorities disagree about oversight of sports-related contracts. The CFTC regulates derivatives, while several states argue that some event markets operate as sports betting services subject to local law. The dispute reached Missouri last week. Crypto.com and Novig sued state officials to challenge orders targeting their sports contracts. Neither lawsuit has resolved the wider regulatory dispute.
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