A stronger dollar is the main headwind analysts see, but they argue past dollar rallies have hurt gold far more than Bitcoin.
BIT Research published a report on Wednesday arguing that Bitcoin’s bear market is over, with one upside scenario for this cycle running from $185,000 to $215,000.
The primary cryptocurrency is trading above $83,000 and looks set to finish its third straight month in the green, pushing quarterly gains to 42%.
BIT Calls the Bottom on Holder Profits
The firm says it called the cycle low in late July, after Bitcoin hit a downside target from Elliott Wave analysis and held above $62,900.
Weekly RSI, a gauge of how hard prices are falling, stopped dropping in June and July even as price made new lows, a split the report compares to the 2022 bottom. BTC then crossed its 21-week moving average at $69,272 and reclaimed $70,000. It now trades around $83,000, above its March 2024 high of $73,084.
The report leaned on cost basis, with the True Market Mean, the estimated average price holders paid, sitting at $76,897, so the typical holder and the average spot ETF buyer are back in profit; therefore, in the analysts’ view, this removes a source of selling pressure.
Another thing BIT considered was the fact that US federal debt has passed $40 trillion, and rising Treasury yields caused by worries over government finances can send money toward gold and BTC.
Its debt model gives a reference valuation near $105,000, but the main headwind is a stronger dollar, with traders pricing in more Fed rate hikes and the Strait of Hormuz still closed. However, the firm does not expect it to derail the rally, since past dollar strength has hurt gold more than Bitcoin.
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The OG crypto has traded between $83,000 and $85,000 since a rejection near $87,000 last week, and at the time of writing, CoinGecko showed it just above that $83,000 level, although it represented a dip of over 4% in seven days.
Still, that price is a nearly 10% improvement across two weeks and more than 7% higher than where it was 30 days ago. Coinglass data puts the third quarter at +42.22%, the best quarter since Q4 2024 and the best Q3 performance since 2017.
ETF flows have also improved, with the funds recording $2.8 billion of net inflows in September so far, taking cumulative inflows to $57.6 billion and total net assets to about $108 billion.
How the Range Gets to $215,000
In past cycles, Bitcoin climbed at least 85% above the average holder’s cost, which is about $142,000 today.
“This is a reference level for tracking the bull market, not a minimum target or a final top,” BIT’s market watchers clarified. “Historically, price has kept rising after crossing it, but there’s no guarantee that repeats.”
Last cycle, it first reached the 85% mark near $73,000 in March 2024 and peaked at $126,000, roughly 1.7 times higher. If the multiple shrinks to 1.3 to 1.5 times on a $142,000 base, the result is $185,000 to $215,000.
Timing is looser. The last cycle took about 19 months to go from the 85% level to the peak, so a similar pattern would put $200,000 around 2028 or 2029, but the analysts called that pattern-matching and described timing as highly uncertain. Closer to now, they say the asset looks stretched after a fast climb, so a pause or a larger pullback is still possible.
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