TLDR
- U.S. CPI fell to 3.5% in June, below the 3.8% forecast — its biggest monthly drop since April 2020
- Bitcoin gained over 2% on the news, pushing past $63,000 and briefly touching $64,000
- Odds of a Fed rate hike at the July FOMC meeting dropped to just 14.4% on CME FedWatch
- Traders are watching $64,800 resistance closely, with some warning of a possible lower high
- $220 million in crypto short liquidations were recorded in the 24 hours following the CPI print
Bitcoin climbed past $64,000 on Tuesday after U.S. inflation data came in lower than expected, giving traders a reason to buy.
The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in at 3.5% year-over-year, below the forecast of 3.8%. Month-over-month, CPI fell 0.4%, well below the expected -0.1%. Core CPI also missed estimates, landing at 2.6% YoY versus the expected 2.8%.
BREAKING: June CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, below expectations of 3.8%
Core CPI inflation falls to 2.6%, below expectations of 2.8%.
Month-over-month CPI inflation fell -0.4%, the biggest monthly drop since May 2020.
US stock market futures are surging on the news.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 14, 2026
The drop marks the largest monthly CPI decline since April 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Energy prices led the fall, with the energy index dropping 5.7% in June after rising 3.9% in May. This happened even as the U.S.-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil supply under pressure.
Bitcoin responded quickly. BTC climbed from an intraday low near $62,000 to around $63,700, a gain of over 2% on the day. It briefly pushed above $64,000 as Wall Street opened.
Rate Hike Odds Drop Sharply
The cooler inflation data reduced the chances of the Fed raising rates. CME FedWatch data shows only a 14.4% chance of a hike at the July FOMC meeting. On prediction market platform Polymarket, July hike odds fell to just 7%, down from a recent high of 34%.
Odds of any rate hike in 2025 also dropped on Polymarket, falling to 55% from a recent high of 71%.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian commented on X, saying the print “should help temper what had become an excessively hawkish market tilt to the monetary policy outlook.”
US CPI inflation came in notably softer than expected across the board (Bloomberg table below).
This print should help temper what had become an excessively hawkish market tilt to the monetary policy outlook.
However, this softer print won’t fully resolve the debate over the… pic.twitter.com/xHwp4ikmyG— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) July 14, 2026
Crypto short liquidations hit just over $220 million in the 24 hours following the data release, according to CoinGlass.
Traders Cautious at Resistance
Despite the rally, traders are not calling it a breakout yet.
X analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin was “testing the top of its range regardless of all the geopolitics.” He said a confirmed close above resistance is still needed.
$BTC Testing the top of its range regardless of all the geopolitics and everything. Today’s push was obviously fueled by the low CPI print.
This range is all you need to watch in the short term right now. Need to see a confirmed close above as we’re right at the resistance now. https://t.co/LTR7tadt38 pic.twitter.com/8LwKZOCBUt
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 14, 2026
Trader Killa flagged a liquidity pool sitting above $64,800 but warned: “If we can’t reclaim and hold the weekly open, this is likely just a lower high before we move down to test the $60K region.”
Analyst Ted noted a sell wall at $65,000, saying a strong break above that level could spark a 5–6% rally.
There’s a decent $BTC sell wall at $65,000.
A strong breakout above this means Bitcoin could see a quick 5%-6% rally. pic.twitter.com/5vfWD0FSmx
— Ted (@TedPillows) July 14, 2026
X commentator Exitpump noted shorts being squeezed but called it “still a range trading environment.”
PPI inflation data is due to drop next, which could spark further volatility in Bitcoin’s price.
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